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The projected population of the city should be established for the first stage of construction and for the estimated period.

The entire population of the city is divided into three structural groups: city-forming, servicing and independent. The city's population is calculated using the labor balance method; it is defined as a function of the future number of personnel employed in enterprises and institutions of city-forming importance and their share in the urban population. The calculation is made using the formula:

where N is the total population of the city, thousand people;

A - number of city-forming personnel, thousand people;

a is the specific gravity of the city-forming group, %.

The number of city-forming personnel is determined according to the title list of institutions and enterprises given in the assignment.

The proportion of city-forming and service population groups is taken in accordance with the recommendations of building codes and regulations 2.07.01.89* “Urban planning. Planning and development of urban and rural settlements.” For new cities and towns, the share of the city-forming population group should be assumed to be at least 40% for the first phase of construction and at least 35% for the estimated period. The share of the city-forming group of settlements located in climatic regions ΙΑ, 1B and II should be taken for the first stage of construction at least 50%, and for the estimated period - no more than 40% of the project population.

The number of service and non-self-employed population groups is calculated using the following formulas:

where B is the number of the serving population group, thousand people;

δ - share of the service group, %.

where B is the number of the non-amateur group of the population, thousand people;

b is the share of the non-amateur group, %.

Construction codes and regulations recommend that the share of service groups be within the range of 19-21% for the first stage of construction and 23-27% for the estimated period - for large and largest cities, and for medium and small cities and other settlements, respectively, 15-17% and 19-22%.

The share of the non-amateur population group can be determined from the equation:

The results of the calculations performed should be summarized in a table of the project balance of the city’s population using the form below.

Table 1. Project balance of the city population

Example. It is necessary to determine the design population of the city.

Initial data. The construction area is located in the IIIB climate zone (Volgograd). The number of city-forming personnel is: for the first stage of construction - 21 thousand people, for the estimated period - 47 thousand people.

Solution. For a new city designed in climatic zone III, the share of the city-forming group is assumed to be 40% for the first stage of construction and 30% for the design period. Then using formula (1) we get:

where Ν1 is the projected population of the city for the first stage of construction;

Νρ is the projected population of the city for the estimated period.

The share of the serving population group should be assumed to be 17% for the first stage of construction, and 22% for the estimated period. The size of the service group, according to formula (2), is equal to:

where B; - the design number of the serving population group for the first stage of construction;

Br - the design number of the serving population group for the estimated period.

The share of the non-amateur group of the population in accordance with equation (4) will be:

The concept of specific gravity is found in many areas of science and life. This term is used in physics, medicine, metallurgy, economics and sociology. It is difficult to expect that such diverse directions will be interpreted in the same way, so the definition and formula of specific gravity taken from a physics reference book will differ from the formulations found in an economics textbook. However, the essence remains the same - determining the role and significance of a certain part in relation to the whole.

The meaning of the term "specific"

We can talk about two interpretations, physical and statistical:

• In physics, this is the name given to a quantity measured in a unit of something. For example, let's take a room and calculate the amount of water vapor in it. Having obtained the value, A grams, we can say that the humidity here is A grams of water vapor for the whole room. Knowing the total amount of air in the room (B kg), we can find how much water is contained in one kilogram of air by recognizing it specific humidity . One kilogram of room air contains A/B g/kg of water vapor. Thus, a synonym for the term is the word relative.
• In statistical sciences, this is the name given to a particular indicator taken relative to a certain whole. For example, let’s take the country’s annual budget of 500 million and calculate the share of spending on sports. Suppose 1 million rubles are allocated for sports - this is 0.2% of all planned expenses. Not the most significant budget item.

Physical Sciences

In physics, specific weight is called weight measured per unit volume of a homogeneous substance.

Weight in the SI system is indicated in Newtons (N), and volume is calculated in cubic meters. Thus, the unit of the required characteristic becomes Newton per cubic meter (N/cub.m). It follows that this value determines the force with which one cubic meter of the measured substance acts on the support.

Physical formula: U.V. = Weight of the object, N / Volume of the object, cubic meters. m.

Unlike mass, which simply characterizes an object, weight is a vector quantity, that is, it is a force that has the direction of application and describes the effect of the body on other objects. Under normal conditions on the surface of the Earth, the difference is imperceptible to us, not physicists. We often confuse these terms in conversation and are not at all worried about it. But it is still important to understand the fundamentally different meanings these concepts have.

If we use the mass of a body in the above formula, we get its specific gravity, or density. This parameter characterizes how much substance is contained in a unit volume and is measured in kg/cubic meter. m.

Body weight always remains the same, while weight can vary depending on geographical latitude location and height above sea level.

Representing the numerator of the fraction in terms of body mass multiplied by acceleration free fall, we can see the connection between two specific quantities:

U.V. = Object density * Gravity acceleration.

Thus, we can say that specific gravity relates to the density of a substance in the same way as its weight relates to mass, and this ratio is equal to the acceleration of gravity at a particular point on the Earth.

Term in metallurgy

To obtain an alloy with the required properties, metallurgists must have a good understanding of why and how to determine the specific gravity of metals. The same volumes of iron and aluminum have completely different indicators.

In metallurgy, the specific gravity of a material is calculated using the above formula, dividing the mass of the substance by its volume. To obtain the most accurate results, the metal is brought into the most homogeneous state with a minimum of pores before measurement.

Application in medicine

In some cases, the desired characteristic is defined as a coefficient comparing the mass of a certain volume of a substance with the same volume of water at 4 °C. It is known that at this temperature pure distilled water has a specific gravity equal to unity. The more impurities, the more weight. Knowing this indicator, you can determine how high the concentration of substances in the liquid is.

This position is used in medicine when performing urine tests. The first formula given describes how to find the specific gravity of urine. To do this, you need to divide the weight of the sample by its volume.

Economics and Social Sciences

In economics and social sciences, the term denotes the share of a particular factor in the overall structure. This concept has great importance, as it allows one to judge the significance of a sector, its value, and its share in the whole direction.

Formula for share in economy: U.V. = Value of an individual table column / Sum of all table columns.

In this equation, the dividend and divisor are expressed in the same units of measurement, therefore, the desired quantity will be presented as a correct decimal fraction or percentage.

Similar calculations are carried out in economics, economic activity, sociology, statistics and many other disciplines that require data analysis.

When calculating, it is important to understand two things:

• The denominator of the fraction is 100%, and the sum of the indicators for all columns of the table cannot exceed it. So, if we add up the percentage shares of all budget items, we get 100%, no more and no less.
• The result of the calculation cannot be negative, because it represents a fraction of the whole.

Despite the fact that the two given formulas differ from each other and operate different sizes, they still have something in common. In both cases, the weight of the object, its significance, influence on other objects and the situation as a whole are calculated.

We calculate the city's population using the formula:

Total population of the city, people;

Number of city-forming group, people;

Share of the service group, %;

Share of the non-amateur population, %.

The size of the city-forming group is determined as the total number of workers in industry, external transport, construction organizations, research institutes and design institutes, as well as 25% of the number of full-time students at universities and 15% of the number of students in technical schools and vocational schools.

Thus, the size of the city-forming group is:

Specific gravity

The share of the service group is, as a rule, 18-25% (we assume 25%), and the share of the non-self-employed population, taking into account the expansion of the city's territories, is 40-46% (we assume 44%). Thus, the total population is:

According to the data of the individual task, we calculate the population living in areas with different number of floors:

The dimensions of the main territories of the city (according to the preliminary balance) are calculated using the formula:

Where is the area of ​​the territory, hectares;

Population depending on the number of storeys of the building, people;

HC - specific size of an element of the territory of a residential area, m 2 / person.

Areas of elements of residential areas

Based on Table 2 of the guidelines, we determine the areas of elements of residential areas, city centers, green spaces, warehouse areas, enterprises and communal facilities, forest parks, etc.

For example, the area of ​​residential blocks is for a 4-story building:

The area of ​​the land residential streets and roads take up 16-18% (we accept 16%) of the total area of ​​the residential territory and is accordingly:

The area of ​​the territories of universities, technical schools and vocational schools is determined depending on the number of students according to table 3 of the guidelines. We record all the results obtained in Table 1.

Balance of the city territory

Table 1 - Preliminary balance of the city territory

Agricultural land makes up 20% of:

residential territory + industrial territory + sanitary protection zones + external transport territory.

One of the varieties of the arithmetic mean is the chronological mean. Calculated from the totality of the values ​​of a characteristic at different moments or for different periods of time, it is customary to call average chronological, used to find the average level in time series.

In contrast to the variation series, which characterizes the change in phenomena in space, the dynamic series is a series of numbers that characterizes the change in phenomena in time. They are sometimes called temporal or chronological. Depending on the type of time series, to determine their average levels, appropriate methods for calculating the average chronological value can be applied. Thus, when an average level appears in a periodic dynamics series, it is possible to use a simple or weighted arithmetic average. If it is necessary to calculate average level moment series of dynamics with equal time intervals between moments, then it is advisable to use the technique average chronological moment series with equal intervals:

where are the ordinal levels of the moment series; n is the number of moments in the series.

For example, at the beginning of each month of 2010, an agricultural organization (AHO) had the following pig population:

It is conventionally considered that the time intervals (intervals) between the starting moments (dates) of each previous and subsequent month are equal to each other. Therefore, to calculate the average quarterly pig population, formula (6.5) can be applied.

The indicators used to assess population distribution are given in the following table

Let's substitute the corresponding data and get:

This means that on average every month for the first quarter of 2010, the agricultural enterprise had 717 pigs.

In cases where it is necessary to determine the average level of the moment series of dynamics with at unequal intervals between moments, the arithmetic weighted average formula (6.4) is usually used.

For example, the number of workers in the agricultural team was: on April 1 - 20 people, on April 11 - 25, on April 30 - 36 people. It is necessary to calculate the average monthly number of workers in the team for April.

As can be seen from the above data, the time intervals between the indicated moments (dates) are not equal to each other: it can be assumed that the brigade had 20 people for 1 day, 25 for 10 days, 36 for 19 days. Therefore, to calculate the average monthly strength workers in the team, we use formula (6.4) and get:

Thus, in April the agricultural team had an average of 32 workers.

In the system of the agro-industrial complex, the average chronological value can be used when calculating the average annual, quarterly, monthly number of workers, the number of different types and groups of farm animals, the availability of different types of machine and tractor fleet and other cases.

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(at the beginning of 2000)

There are even higher differences in the degree of concentration of the urban population among the subjects of the Federation. More than 90% of the urban population in Magadan region(92.0%), in the Murmansk region (91.9%), in the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug (91.2%); the minimum indicators are in the Chechen Republic (23.5%), in the Altai Republic (25.5%), in the Komi-Permyak Autonomous Okrug (25.8%).

The process of increasing the role of cities is called urbanization. Urbanization entails suburbanization - growth and development around large cities and their satellite cities, which form agglomerations.

Currently, the process of urbanization is increasingly underway - the spread of urban forms and living conditions to the countryside. In the broad sense of the word, urbanization is integral part urbanization.

Rural population Russia is 27%.

Share of urban and rural population by economic region

The location of rural settlements depends on natural geographical factors, primarily soil and climatic conditions. The highest concentration of the rural population is in the North Caucasus (45.1%) and Central Black Earth (37.4%) economic regions, where there are the most favorable conditions for agricultural production.

Urban and rural populations differ in demographic characteristics. In rural areas, the average life expectancy is lower, the birth and death rates are higher, and the proportion of the elderly population is higher, which influences the increase in population mortality and the decrease average duration life (Table 5.4).

Table 5.5.

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Average chronological

Average chronological is the average level of a series of dynamics, i.e.

3.3. Share of urban population in the total population1)

i.e. average, calculated from the totality of indicator values ​​at different moments or periods of time.

Depending on the type of dynamics series, various methods of its calculation are used, namely the calculation of the average chronological interval series and the average chronological moment series.

The average chronological interval (more common) series is the average value of the levels of the interval dynamics series, which is calculated by the formula:

where is the average level of the row;

— level of the dynamics series;

- number of members of the series

As an example, let’s look at data on children’s health institutions in Pskov and the region.

Table. Children's health facilities

The series under study is interval, using the average chronological formula we can calculate the average number of health institutions:

Institutions.

The average chronological moment series is the average value of the levels of the moment series dynamics. If there is a function expressing the change in a moment indicator over time, then for the time from to the average chronological moment series is equal to:

However, as a rule, statistics do not have continuous observation data available. Therefore, depending on the nature of the change in the indicator and the available data, various methods calculation.

Given equal time intervals between the dates for which data are available and a uniform change in the size of the indicator between dates, the average chronological moment series is usually calculated using the formula:

where is the row level;

- the number of all members of the series;

- average level.

If the time periods separating one date from another are not equal, then the average chronological moment series is calculated using the weighted arithmetic average formula, the weights of which are taken as the time intervals between dates, i.e., according to the formula:

where is the time during which a given level of the series remained unchanged.

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Subject and main tasks of socio-economic statistics

The subject of socio-economic statistics (SES) is the quantitative side of mass social and economic phenomena inextricably linked with their qualitative content in specific conditions of place and time

main tasks of SES.

1. Statistical observation of the activities of all subjects of the country’s economy at all stages of the reproduction cycle (production of goods and services; formation and distribution of primary income; redistribution of income; use of income for final consumption and the formation of savings; use of savings for accumulation).

Population distribution indicators

A comprehensive study of the state and development of the economy of the country and its regions (reproduction of fixed assets, investment activity, dynamics of national wealth, characteristics of the labor market, economic growth rates, labor productivity growth rates, price indices and inflation rates, state budget deficits (surpluses), level of public debt, etc.).

3. A comprehensive study of the state and development of the social sphere of the country and its regions (vital movement of the population, infant mortality, life expectancy, household income and consumption, indices of nominal and real wages, indices of real disposable cash income , social stratification of society, dynamics of poverty levels, etc.). 4. Analysis of macroeconomic proportions (for example, between production and consumption, accumulation and consumption, growth in labor productivity and growth in average wages and etc.).

5. Analysis of trends, patterns throughout the country and individual regions (decrease in the mortality rate, increase in the birth rate, dynamics of employment and unemployment, dynamics of inflation, growth in labor productivity and consumer prices, dynamics of the poverty level, etc.), as well as types of economic activity (dynamics of the number of enterprises and organizations, including small and medium-sized enterprises, dynamics of production volume and turnover of goods and services, reduction of material costs and energy intensity, profit growth and reducing the unprofitability of production, increasing the level of labor productivity and average wages, increasing producer prices, etc.).8

6. Improving systems of indicators characterizing socio-economic phenomena and processes, classifications (classifiers), their consistency and interrelation, methods for assessing individual indicators.

7. Improving the methodology for analyzing socio-economic phenomena and processes, including the methodology of national accounting.

8. Providing government authorities with required information on the socio-economic development of the country and its regions in order to take measures to reduce their intensity).

9. Providing heads of enterprises and companies, managers, production organizers and businessmen with information on the development of the economy and social sphere necessary to study the external environment in which their companies or enterprises operate, when making decisions on investments and expansion of production , sales organizations, etc.

10. Informing society, educational and research institutions and other organizations and individuals about the main results and trends in the socio-economic development of the country and its regions.

11. Providing information on the state and development of the Russian economy in international organizations: UN, International Monetary Fund (IMF), The World Bank and etc.

12. Introduction of new technologies for collecting, processing, transferring and distributing statistical information, etc.

Methods for calculating the average annual population.

the choice of method for calculating it depends on the source data.

1. If there are data for the beginning (S1) and the end of the period (S2), then the average population is determined using the simple arithmetic average formula:

3. If the intervals between dates are unequal, then the calculation using the weighted arithmetic mean method:

To characterize the change population in time are used:

1. population growth rate:

2. population growth rate:

Having determined the population size, the SES studies its composition using the method factions, which is carried out according to:

social composition,

areas of activity and sectors of the economy,

·professions,

age,

marital status,

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Basic concepts and indicators

Basic concepts of demographic statistics
Census	Demographic qualification designed to characterize the demographic situation in the country. In Russia, complete population censuses were carried out in 1920, 1926, 1939, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989 and 2002.
Microcensus	Conducted in the intervals between population censuses, it usually covers 5% of the population (for example, the census in Russia in 1994)
Age and sex pyramids	A graphic image that allows you to clearly display the age and sex composition of the population
Natural population movement	Change in population due to births and deaths
Natural increase (decrease) of population	Positive (negative) difference between the number of births and deaths: , Where N– number of births; M– number of deaths
Mechanical increase (decrease) of population (balance of migration)	Positive (negative) difference between the number of arriving and leaving population: , Where P IN
Migration	Movement of people (migrants) across the borders of territories with a change of residence permanently or for a certain time. Migration can be internal and external
Internal migration	Movement of population within a certain territory
External migration	Population movement across territory boundaries
Gross migration (gross migration)	Shows the total number of migrating residents: P + V. This indicator is also called migration turnover
Balance of migration	The difference between the number of arrivals and departures: P – V
Immigration	Entry of population into a particular area or country
Emigration	Exit of population from a given area or country

Continuation of the table. 3.1

Population indicators (categories) in censuses
Present population (NP)	A category of population that unites people actually located in a given locality at the time of the census: NN = PN – VO + VP, Where Mon– permanent population; IN– temporarily absent; VP – temporary residents
Resident population (PN)	A category of population that unites people for whom a given locality represents their place of usual residence, regardless of their actual location at the time of registration (census): PN = NN – VP + VO
Temporarily absent (VO)	These are persons who have a permanent place of residence in a given locality and who are absent at the time of registration. Their absence should not exceed 6 months
Temporary residents (TP)	These are persons who are at the time of registration in a given locality, but have a permanent place of residence in another locality
Population figures
Population at the end of the year	, Where S n.g. N – number of births; M– number of deaths; P– the number of arrivals to a given locality; IN– the number of people who left a given locality
Average annual population	On a certain date for equal periods is calculated using the formula , Where n– number of levels (dates); S 1… P– population size on a certain date. At the beginning and end of the year it is determined as the arithmetic average: , Where S n.g.– population at the beginning of the year; S k.g– population at the end of the year. In an interval series with unequally spaced levels, it is determined by the formula , where is the average population i-th period; – duration i th period

Continuation of the table. 3.1

Continuation of the table. 3.1

End of table. 3.1