Shows the industrial production index. Integral index of production

In accordance with clause 5.2 of the Regulations on the Federal State Statistics Service, approved by Government Decree Russian Federation dated June 2, 2008 N 420 (Collected Legislation of the Russian Federation, 2008, N 23, Art. 2710; 2008, N 46, Art. 5337; 2009, N 6, Art. 738; 2010, N 26, Art. 3350; 2011, N 6, Art. 888; N 14, Art. 1935; 2012, N 5, Art. 607; N 26, Art. 3520), I order:

The methodology was developed with the aim of bringing it closer to international experience in the field of calculations of production indices and improving the quality of official statistical information on production indices.

This Methodology is used to generate industrial production indices for the Russian Federation and the constituent entities of the Russian Federation as a whole.

I. General provisions

1.1. Concept of production index

The production index is a relative indicator characterizing the aggregate changes in the production of all types of goods, works and services for the periods being compared.

The production index reflects the change in the value created in the production process as a result of real (physical) growth (decrease) in the production of goods, performance of work and provision of services.

Individual, group and summary production indices are calculated.

Individual production indices reflect changes in the output of one product and are calculated as the ratio of production volumes of a given type of product in physical terms in the periods being compared.

The composite production index characterizes the aggregate changes in the production of all types of products and reflects the change in the value created in the production process as a result of changes only in the physical volume of products produced.

The use of individual and summary indices involves the identification of two hierarchical levels. When using more than two hierarchical levels in calculations, group indices additionally appear in the system.

Industrial production index - an aggregated production index for the types of activities "Mining", "Manufacturing", "Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water".

The industrial production index is one of the main macroeconomic indicators of the development of the manufacturing sector of the economy.

1.2. Principles for the formation of production indices

The construction of production indices is based on compliance with the following basic principles.

The production index is formed primarily on data on the dynamics of output for an established set (“basket”) of core goods in physical or value terms.

As part of the calculation of production indices, a step-by-step aggregation of individual (commodity) indices into indices by type of economic activity is carried out. Indices for large populations are calculated as a weighted average of the constituent elements of these populations.

The calculation of production indices is based on a comparison of the volumes of output of goods and services of the compared periods through the base year.

Using the base year comparison method allows you to:

ensure the inclusion of goods in the index for an elementary type of activity and then the type of activity in the calculation of indices for higher OKVED groupings, taking into account their real weight in a specific period of the year;

avoid the occurrence of mathematical uncertainty (division by zero) in the calculations of production indices, which is especially important for a period of unstable economic development, characterized by high irregularity of production and long downtime;

ensure the consistency of different types of indices, provided that the base year remains unchanged; for example, the index for the corresponding month of the previous year is equal to the product of the sequence of twelve indices calculated for the previous month.

The calculation of production indices is based on the use of data on the dynamics of production for an established set of goods in physical or value terms, followed by a step-by-step aggregation of individual indices by type of economic activity into indices for enlarged groupings of types of economic activity (subgroups, groups, subclasses, classes, subsections, sections) according to the hierarchical structure of the All-Russian Classifier of Economic Activities by weighing them by the amount of added value created in a specific type of economic activity in the base year. At the same time, data on added value is generated based on actual types of economic activity. The use of value added as weights contributes to the fact that the aggregate indicator “production index” characterizes the dynamics of production in a specific time period, cleared of repeated calculations for products created in previous time periods and within the framework of other types of economic activity, and does not depend on organizational production structures.

Thus, the indicator "production index" in its own way economic essence represents a characteristic of the dynamics of added value and reflects changes in the totality of values ​​newly created in the compared periods.

1.3. Selecting a mathematical calculation formula

For the purpose of prompt monthly generation of the information resource necessary for calculating the production index by type of economic activity, in Russian statistical practice preference is given to the Laspeyres index, as in the statistical practice of England, Germany, the USA, etc.

The decision is dictated both by considerations of technological efficiency of calculation, since there is no need to quickly change weights when processing data from a new period, and by ease of interpretation of the result: the index value is equal to the ratio of values ​​in constant prices of the base period of the “basket” of representative goods of a fixed composition in comparable periods of time.

The calculation of production indices is carried out in several stages.

At each stage, three series of indices are calculated:

1. Indices characterizing the change in production in the reporting period t (month or period from the beginning of the reporting year) compared to the average monthly volume of the base year - *.

The year in which the commodity structure of production, prices and added value is relatively stable is taken as the base year, and no significant change is expected in the coming years.

As you move away from the base year, the accuracy of the index calculation gradually decreases, since the price structure and sectoral structure of industrial production deviate more and more from that which took place in the base year. Therefore, in global statistical practice, index calculations based on the same base year are carried out for approximately 5 years, after which the base year is updated. In this case, as a rule, the year whose number ends in “0” or “5” is selected as the base year.

The decision to change the base year is made taking into account the intensity of structural changes occurring in production.

2. Indices characterizing the change in production in the past period t-1 (the previous month, the corresponding month of last year or the corresponding period from the beginning of last year) compared to the average monthly volume of the base year - *.

3. Indices * characterizing the change in production in the reporting period t (month or period from the beginning of the reporting year) compared with the past period t-1 (the previous month, the corresponding month of last year or the corresponding period from the beginning of last year), which are obtained by division indices calculated in . And .

A comparison of the volume of production for a period of time t with the volume of production for a period t-1 is carried out by comparing the deviations of these two volumes from the monthly average of the base year.

II. Generation of information resources for calculating production indices

2.1. Formation of a “basket” of representative goods

The quality of production indices depends on the choice of the “basket” of representative goods*(5).

When forming a “basket”, it is necessary to ensure, on the one hand, the representativeness of the index, and on the other hand, the efficiency of generating an information array of data on the production of goods.

The “basket” of goods is formed from products that are specialized for elementary types of activities, if possible from products differentiated by quality characteristics and areas of use.

The “basket” mainly includes goods that represent the final product of a specific type of activity. As an exception, for certain types of activities it is possible to include goods in the “basket”, part of which can be sent for further processing within the same type of activity.

To ensure the representativeness of production indices, the total cost of goods included in the “basket” for an elementary type of activity must be at least 70 percent of the volume of production in value terms for this type of economic activity.

Not only goods are selected for which it is easy to assess the physical growth of their production (for example, oil, gas, coal, ore, cement), but also goods for which the dynamics of production are difficult to assess due to their wide range (for example, measuring instruments) .

Production of goods included in the “basket” can be accounted for in natural (physical) units or in value terms.

The choice of meters for time series of indicators for goods used in calculating individual indices must be justified from the point of view of the significance of these goods in the production of added value for the corresponding type of activity.

A single unified list of representative goods is being formed and expanded by Rosstat, taking into account proposals from territorial statistical bodies. The list of representative goods centrally generated by Rosstat is mandatory for use in calculations at the regional level.

Technologically, the selection of goods is carried out in several stages.

For continuity of settlements over time, the basis for the formation of a list of representative goods is the principle of maximizing the preservation of a constant (mandatory) “basket” of goods for a long period.

When moving to a more current base year, additional new goods are included in the old “basket”, the production of which has been started or significantly expanded since the previous base year, and, if necessary, the goods in the basket are disaggregated, i.e. inclusion of data on assortment groups in the calculation for a more accurate accounting of product shifts and qualitative changes.

In cases where it is difficult to form a representative “basket” of goods in physical terms for an elementary type of economic activity, the deflation method is used (a procedure that ensures the translation of economic indicators calculated in current prices into comparable constant prices).

The deflation method is preferable in cases where:

the product (goods) occupies a significant share in production by type of activity, but it is difficult to promptly obtain information in physical terms about it (them);

an elementary type of activity occupies a significant share in production for a subgroup of activities (i.e., according to a higher group of OKVED), but due to the specifics of the activity, the result cannot be presented in physical terms;

there is a significant change in the product range within the framework of an elementary type of activity;

There are significant differences between production indices obtained by averaging the dynamics of goods in physical terms and deflating production in current prices.

The application of the deflation method is discussed in detail in the Methodology.

2.2. Formation of a weight system

To calculate the production index, it is necessary to create a system of weights for the base year that allows you to correctly take into account the dynamics of a specific product in the indices across the entire hierarchy of groupings of activities.

When forming an index for an elementary type of activity based on goods, the volume of production of the base year, calculated in average prices of the base year for the products included in the “basket”, acts as weights. The actual price level affects the value of the production index for an elementary type of activity in the case when two or more representative goods are included in the “basket” for this type of activity.

At all subsequent stages, the structure of value added by actual types of economic activity according to OKVED is used as weights.

2.2.1. Formation of average prices for goods

When determining the price, data on shipment volumes in physical and value terms for a specific product are used. The price must reflect the full unit cost of the product "at market entry." Shipment indicators do not include goods produced from customer-supplied raw materials, and, accordingly, the cost of services for their processing, as well as that part of the goods that is sent for further processing at the same enterprise (internal turnover).

2.2.2. Generating data on added value

The generation of data on added value by type of economic activity is carried out on the basis of data from the annual structural survey (form N 1-enterprise “Basic information about the organization’s activities”).

The value added indicator as the difference between output and intermediate consumption can be calculated only for “economic” (main) types of activities for which data on turnover by type of activity can be obtained from annual structural surveys.

By superimposing the output structure on the amount of added value for “economic” activities, it is possible to estimate the added value for incoming activities. By summing up the values ​​of added value for each type of activity for all “economic” types of activity, one can then obtain an estimate of added value for actual (“net”) types of activity.

Based on the data of the annual structural survey, the “value added” indicator is formed only for a circle of organizations that are not related to small businesses. Therefore, data on the “added value” indicator must be compiled for a full range of manufacturers. The shares of added value in the output of goods and services, calculated for elementary “economic” types of activity, are used when generating data on value added for elementary actual types of activity.

The calculation procedure is as follows.

Formation of added value by actual types of activities for a full range of organizations

* The structure of the base year value added production indices used for calculations is posted on the official website Federal service state statistics (www.gks.ru: " Official statistics", "Entrepreneurship", "Industrial Production").

** For the years of continuous monitoring of the activities of small and medium-sized businesses, the results of these surveys are used in the formation of information resources (for example, when calculating production indices to the new base year of 2010 for small enterprises, data from continuous monitoring of the activities of small and medium-sized businesses were used medium-sized enterprises for 2010)

III. Algorithm for calculating production indices

The formation of production indices is carried out in several stages.

At the first stage of calculation, production indices are determined for each elementary type of activity by comparing the output of representative goods in the reporting period with their output in the base period. In this case, the output of each representative product for the periods being compared is valued at the same prices - the average annual prices of the base year.

The calculation of the index for an elementary type of economic activity is carried out using the following formulas:

* - index for the jth type of activity for the reporting period t (reporting month, period from the beginning of the year) compared to the average monthly production of the base year, in%;

* - production of the n-th product in physical (or value) terms, respectively, for the t-period (reporting month, period since the beginning of the year), t-1-period (previous month, corresponding periods of the previous year) and on average for the base month of the year;

* - average annual price per unit of the nth product in the base year, thousand rubles;

N is the number of goods included in the basket by type of activity;

* - index for the jth type of activity for the previous t-1 period (previous month, corresponding periods of the previous year) compared to the average monthly production of the base year, in%;

* - index for the jth type of activity for the reporting period t (reporting month, period from the beginning of the year) compared to the previous period t-1 (previous month, corresponding periods of the previous year), in %.

At subsequent stages of calculation, indices for an elementary type of activity, generated at stage 1, are aggregated according to the hierarchical structure of the All-Russian Classifier of Economic Activities (OKVED) into indices for a subgroup of types of activity, which, in turn, into indices for a group, subclasses, classes, subsections, sections C "Mining", D "Manufacturing", and E "Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water" and the industrial production index.

To take into account the impact of a specific activity (or subgroup, group of activities, etc.) on general index in sections C "Mining", D "Manufacturing", E "Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water" of OKVED, a step-by-step weighing is carried out by the value added of the base year according to the corresponding OKVED groupings.

The calculation is performed using the formulas:

* - index for the jth type of activity (subgroup, group, subclass, class, subsection, section of OKVED) for the reporting period t (reporting month, period from the beginning of the year) or for the previous t-1 period (previous month, corresponding periods of the previous year) compared to the average monthly production of the base year, in%;

* - index for the jth type of activity for the reporting period t (reporting month, period since the beginning of the year) or for the previous t-1 period (previous month, corresponding periods of the previous year) compared with the average monthly production of the base year, formed at the previous stage calculation, in %;

* - added value for the base year for the jth type of activity, thousand rubles.

The production index for the reporting period t in comparison with the previous t-1 is calculated by the ratio of the indices calculated to the average monthly production of the base year, according to the formula:

The industrial production index is calculated as a weighted arithmetic mean of production indices for types of activity C "Mining", D "Manufacturing" and E "Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water" OKVED.

* - industrial production index for reporting t-period(reporting month, period since the beginning of the year) compared to the previous period t-1 (previous month, corresponding periods of the previous year), in%;

* - index of industrial production for the t-period (reporting month, period from the beginning of the year) and t-1-period (previous month, corresponding periods of the previous year) compared with the average monthly production of the base year, in%;

* - production index by type of activity C "Mining", D "Manufacturing", E "Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water" for the t-period (reporting month, period from the beginning of the year) and t-1-period (previous month, corresponding periods of the previous year) compared to the average monthly production of the base year, in%;

* - value added for the base year by type of activity C "Mining", D "Manufacturing", E "Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water", thousand rubles.

The described calculation algorithm is illustrated below using a conditional example.

Table 1.1.

A conditional example of calculating the production index for an elementary type of economic activity (based on representative goods)

Table 1.2.

A conditional example of the formation of a production index by type of economic activity 15.33 "Processing and canning of fruits and vegetables not included in other groups"

Stage 2 Iteration 1.

______________________________

* For elementary types of activities (codes 15.33.1 and 15.33.2) - column 1, multiplied by the data in table 1.1, respectively. For a group of activities (code 15.33) - the amount for incoming activities.

** For elementary activities 15.33.1 and 15.33.2, data generated at stage I are transferred, respectively, in Table 1.1.

Table 1.3.

A conditional example of the formation of a production index by type of economic activity 15.3 "Processing and canning of potatoes, fruits and vegetables"

Stage 2 Iteration 2.

______________________________

* For types of activities for which indices were formed at the previous stage of calculations (codes 15.31, 15.32 and 15.33) - column 1, multiplied by the data in table 1.2, respectively. For a group of activities (code 15.3) - the amount for incoming activities.

** For activity 15.33, data generated at stage 2 of iteration 1 is transferred, according to Table 1.2.

Table 1.4.

A conditional example of the formation of a production index by type of economic activity 15 "Production of food products, including drinks"

Stage 2 Iteration 3.

______________________________

* For types of activities for which indices were formed at the previous stage of calculations (codes 15.1-15.9) - column 1, multiplied by the data in table 1.3, respectively. For a group of activities (code 15) - the amount for incoming activities.

** For activity 15.3, data generated at stage 2 of iteration 2 is transferred, respectively, table 1.3.

Table 1.5.

A conditional example of the formation of a production index for subsection DA "Food production"

Stage 2 Iteration 4.

______________________________

* For types of activities for which indices were formed at the previous stage of calculations (codes 15 and 16) - column 1, multiplied by the data in table 1.4, respectively. For a group of activities (subsection DA) - the amount for incoming activities.

** For type of activity 15, data generated at stage 2 of iteration 3 is transferred, according to Table 1.4.

Table 1.6.

A conditional example of the formation of a production index for section D "Manufacturing"

______________________________

* For types of activities for which indices were formed at the previous stage of calculations (subsection DA) - column 1, multiplied by the data in table 1.5, respectively. For a group of activities (section “Manufacturing”) - the amount for incoming activities.

** Subsection DA transfers data generated at stage 2 of iteration 4, respectively, table 1.5.

Table 1.7.

A conditional example of the formation of an industrial production index

______________________________

* For types of activities for which indices were formed at the previous stage of calculations (section D "Manufacturing industries") - column 1, multiplied by the data in table 1.6, respectively. For industrial production - the amount for incoming activities.

** Section D transfers the data generated at stage 3, according to Table 1.6.

IV. Application of the deflation method when calculating production indices

4.1. Algorithm for calculating production indices using the deflation method

The “basket” can include goods that are accounted for not only in physical terms, but also goods that are accounted for in the current prices of the corresponding periods.

To ensure the unity of the methodology for assessing the dynamics of production for representative goods in physical terms and by the deflation method, deflator indices are needed that make it possible to recalculate the value estimates for a product in current prices into the average prices of the year taken as the base year.

Manufacturer price indices for industrial goods are used as deflator indices.

A similar approach is used in relation to types of economic activities for which, due to their specificity, it is difficult to select a “basket” of goods (for example, the production of instruments, spare parts, parts, etc.), and data on production for which are available only in value terms (for example, provision of installation, repair and maintenance machines, equipment, devices, equipment, etc.).

The application of the deflation method is carried out at the level of an elementary type of economic activity and makes it possible to ensure the representativeness of production indices calculated for this type of activity.

The indicator subject to deflation by type of economic activity is the indicator “Shipped goods of own production, performed works and services using own forces” (for products - “volume of products produced in value terms”). To include this indicator in the calculation of the production index, the following operations must be performed on it.

1. For each type of activity, the growth rate is determined in current prices (cost index):

* - growth rate in current prices for the i-th type of economic activity for the reporting month, in%;

* - volume of shipped goods of own production, work and services performed on one’s own resources of the i-th type of activity in current prices in the reporting month, thousand rubles;

* - the volume of shipped goods of own production, performed work and services by own forces of the i-th type of activity on average per month of the base year, thousand rubles.

Growth rates are calculated similarly as a percentage of the base year for the previous month of the reporting year and for the corresponding month of the previous year.

2. Deflator indices are calculated for the relevant types of activities (goods), i.e. price indices of the reporting month to the level of average prices of the base year.

As information base The calculations are based on producer price indices for industrial goods.

For each type of activity (product), the price index of December of the base year is calculated to the level of average prices of the base year. In the case of unique products, this index is calculated by the nearest higher product group or type of economic activity.

The calculation is carried out by dividing the price index of December of the base year by December of the year preceding the base year by the average price index for the base year by December of the year preceding the base year:

* - price index of December of the base year to December of the year preceding the base year, in%;

* - average price index for the base year to December of the year preceding the base year, in %.

The average price index for the base year to December of the year preceding the base year is calculated using the formula of the arithmetic average index from the monthly price indices for the base year, calculated in relation to December of the year preceding the base year:

* - price indices in January, February... December of the base year, calculated in relation to December of the year preceding the base year, in %.

Next, for each type of activity (product), the price index of the reporting month to the level of average prices of the base year (index-deflator) is determined as the product of the price index of December of the base year to the level of average prices of the base year and the price index of the reporting month to December of the base year:

* - price index of the reporting month to the average for the month of the base year for the i-th type of economic activity (products in value terms), in%;

* - price index in December of the base year to the level of average prices of the base year, in%;

* - price index of the reporting month to December of the base year, in %.

By type of activity, the production index to the average monthly level of the base year is determined as the ratio of the growth rate in current prices, obtained according to , to the deflator index, obtained according to

* - production index of the reporting month to the average monthly level of the base year, in%;

* - growth rate in current prices of the reporting month to the average for the month of the base year for the i-th type of economic activity (products in value terms), in%;

* - price index of the reporting month to the average for the month of the base year for the i-th type of economic activity (products in value terms), in %.

For a product whose output is accounted for in value terms, the volume of production for the comparable periods in average prices of the base year is determined as the ratio of the volume of production in current prices for the corresponding period and the deflator index calculated in relation to the level of average prices of the base year.

The resulting production volumes of goods in average prices of the base year are used at the first stage of calculating the production index for an elementary type of activity. Next, the calculation is carried out in accordance with the general methodology.

Using a similar principle, production indices are determined for the previous month and the corresponding month of the previous year, the period from the beginning of the reporting year and the previous year in relation to the average monthly level of the base year.

The calculation of the price index in December of the base year to the level of average prices of the base year is carried out according to:

3. Starting from January of the year (1) following the base year (0), a chain of price indices is formed as a percentage of December of the base year.

By month of the year (1) following the base year (0):

table 2

Table 3

For the months of the second year (2) following the base year (01) - the reporting year for a conditional example:

Table 4

Table 5

4. Next, for “each type of activity (product), the price index of the reporting month is determined according to the level of average prices of the base year (index-deflator) as the product of the price index of December of the base year to the level of average prices of the base year (clause 2 of the conditional example) and the index prices of the reporting month to December of the base year (clause 3 of the conditional example).

Table 6

5. For a product, the production of which is accounted for in value terms, the volume of production for the comparable periods is determined in average prices of the base year.

Table 7

Received in gr. 6-7 volumes of production of goods in average prices of the base year are used at the first stage of calculating the production index for an elementary type of activity. Next, the calculation is carried out in accordance with the general methodology.

6. Next, for each type of economic activity, the growth rate of volumes of shipped goods of own production, work and services performed on one’s own is determined in accordance with current prices for the comparable periods compared to the average monthly volume of the base year.

Table 8

The industrial producer price index is used as a deflator index.

If price monitoring for the specified products is not carried out, the deflator index can be calculated on the basis of information in the form Appendix No. 2 “Information on the production of military (defense) products” to form N P-1 by correlating data on the production of military (defense) products ) and civilian products in actual and fixed prices for the relevant type of economic activity.

The algorithm for calculating the deflator index in relation to the previous month is given in the following formulas:

* - rate of growth (decrease) in the output of military (defense) products in current and fixed prices in relation to the previous month, in%;

* - deflator index in relation to the previous month, in%;

* - output of military (defense) products in current prices in the reporting month t and the previous month t-1, thousand rubles;

* - output of civilian products in current prices in the reporting month t and the previous month t-1, thousand rubles;

* - output of military (defense) products at fixed prices in the reporting month t and the previous month t-1, thousand rubles;

* - output of civilian products at fixed prices in the reporting month t and the previous month t-1, thousand rubles.

The obtained indices of production of products with a long technological manufacturing cycle for the reporting month, the previous month and the corresponding month of the previous year in relation to the average monthly level of the base year are used at the stage of aggregating indices of production of products into indices for aggregated types of economic activity (subgroups, groups, subclasses, classes) in accordance with the current methodology.

4.3. Taking into account changes in the quality and consumer properties of goods when calculating production indices

With the development of high-tech industries, the emergence of new, previously unproduced goods, the displacement of obsolete products by more modern ones, the expansion of the assortment of manufactured products, when calculating production indices, the problem arises of ensuring the comparability of the production of goods in the compared periods, as well as taking into account the factor of improving the quality parameters of manufactured equipment, materials, etc. This problem is most typical for such areas of activity as the production of various types of instruments, electrical equipment, electronic and optical equipment, computers, etc.

The term "quality" refers to those characteristics of a product or service that have sufficiently significant differences to distinguish one product (service) from another (another) from an economic point of view.

Accurate reflection of the factor of change in the quality parameters of products in the calculations of production indices is achieved either by deflation using a price index calculated for products with certain properties, or by adjusting the primary data using the extrapolation method.

In order to reduce the additional burden on respondents and ensure the efficiency of information generation, the most acceptable approach for more accurately accounting for product shifts and qualitative changes is the disaggregation of goods in the “basket”, i.e. inclusion in the calculation of production indices of data on product groups, inclusion in the calculation of goods for which there may be significant changes technical characteristics, not in quantitative terms, but in units that reflect them technical specifications, or in conventional terms, as well as in monetary terms using the deflation method.

Since such an opportunity arises only in relation to individual goods, types of economic activity in which products with significant and rapid change quality characteristics, are included in the calculation of production indices using the deflation method, which makes it possible to separate the inflationary component (Methodologies).

The production index, calculated on the basis of deflated data, takes into account changes in physical growth, quality characteristics and structural changes.

V. Emergence of a new type of economic activity

Since the calculation of the industrial production index is carried out in several stages, at each of them a situation may arise where a new type of economic activity appears, i.e. type of economic activity for which production began in the period after the base year.

To ensure methodological unity when including a new type of economic activity in the calculation of production indices, starting from the second stage of calculating production indices, the so-called calculated value is used.

The calculated value is determined for a new type of economic activity by the product of the valuation of output for a new type of product in the corresponding period (reporting month, previous month, corresponding month of last year, period from the beginning of the reporting and previous years) and the share of added value in the volume of output of goods and services in base year.

Since production of products within the new type of activity was started after the base year, the share of value added in the volume of output cannot be calculated for this type of economic activity.

In this situation, you should use the share formed by the higher-level grouping based on the premise that intermediate consumption and value added for an elementary activity are distributed in the same proportion as in higher-order classification groups.

If for the higher grouping to which the new type of activity belongs, added value has not been generated for the base year (up to the OKVED section), it is advisable to use the share of added value in the total volume of output of goods and services, calculated on the basis of the first year of production of goods within this type activities.

If production within the framework of a new type of activity began in the current year and information on the results for the reporting year has not yet been generated, it is necessary to use the share calculated for the nearby constituent entity of the Russian Federation corresponding federal district or Russia as a whole, based on the premise that intermediate consumption and added value are distributed in the same proportion as in territorial entities of a higher order.

Thus, using data on the share of value added, it is possible to determine estimated values ​​for each new type of economic activity, which will subsequently be used to obtain an index at higher levels of aggregation. At the same time, data on value added for the base year, i.e. the production structure of the base year remains unchanged, and then the calculation takes place according to the general methodology in accordance with the above algorithms.

Estimated values ​​for each new type of economic activity are determined for all compared time periods.

The formation of calculated values ​​is carried out according to the following formula for each elementary type of activity in the analyzed time periods:

* - calculated value for an elementary type of economic activity (i) for the period under review (reporting period, previous period and corresponding period of last year), thousand rubles;

* - volume of production for an elementary type of activity (i) in value terms for the period under review, calculated at the first stage of index calculations, thousand rubles;

* - share of added value in the total volume of goods produced in the base year.

Production at average prices of the base period for an elementary new type of economic activity is determined by the formula:

* - volume of production in physical terms for a product, the production of which began after the base year within the framework of a new type of economic activity (i) for the period under review (reporting period, previous period and the corresponding period of the previous year);

* - the price of the first month of production of a new product, brought into a comparable form using the producer price index, or when calculated at the regional level - the average annual price per unit of a product similar or similar in its consumer properties, purpose or direction of use for the base year; it is possible to use data for a nearby subject of the Russian Federation, the corresponding federal district or Russia as a whole, thousand rubles;

k is the number of items of goods, the production of which began after the base year within the framework of a new type of economic activity (i).

Production indices for new elementary types of activities (*) for the reporting period in relation to the periods being compared are determined as the ratio of calculated values ​​using the following formula:

* - calculated value for an elementary type of economic activity (i) for the reporting period t (reporting month, period from the beginning of the reporting year), thousand rubles;

* - calculated value for an elementary type of economic activity (i) for the previous period t-1 (previous month, corresponding month (period) of last year), thousand rubles.

Further inclusion of these activities in the calculation algorithm can be done in several ways.

Option 1. For the higher grouping (j), to which the new type of activity (i) belongs, there is data on the value added of the base year and it contains types of activities for which indices were calculated in relation to the base year at the previous stage.

In this case, the calculated values ​​of all types of activities included in group (j), including the new type of activity (i), are summed up for the corresponding time periods (reporting period, previous period, last year period, base year).

* - calculated values ​​for the i-th type of activity included in the group for the reporting period, the previous period (the corresponding period of last year), thousand rubles;

n is the number of activities included in the group.

For the j-th group, on the basis of the calculated values ​​obtained and the value added of the base year, production indices are calculated in relation to the base year, which will subsequently be used in calculating production indices for more high level aggregations:

* - production index for the j-th group for the reporting period, the previous period (the corresponding period of the previous year), calculated in relation to the base year, in%;

* - calculated values ​​for the j-th group for the reporting period, the previous period (the corresponding period of last year), thousand rubles;

* - added value of the base year for the j-th group of activities, thousand rubles.

The production index for the reporting period compared to the previous period (corresponding to the period of last year) is determined by the following formula:

Option 2. For the higher grouping (j), to which the new type of activity (i) belongs, there is no data on value added for the base year, i.e. there is the emergence of a new group (j), within which production began after the base year.

In this case, production indices as a percentage of the base year are not calculated for the specified grouping (j).

The formation of production indices for the reporting period in relation to the periods being compared is carried out by comparing calculated values ​​in accordance with the above algorithm (formula 20).

The calculated values ​​for the higher grouping (j) are determined by summing the calculated values ​​for new types of economic activity included in the group, which were obtained at the previous stage of the calculation.

* - index for the j-th group for the reporting period t (reporting month, period from the beginning of the year) compared with the previous period (period of last year), in %;

* - calculated values ​​for the i-th new type of activity for the reporting t period and the previous t-1 period (last year period), thousand rubles;

For groupings that include one new type of activity, the calculated values ​​will be equal to the values ​​​​obtained for the new type of economic activity at the previous stage of calculations.

A conditional example of the formation of production indices for a higher grouping, taking into account new types of economic activity, is given in the following table.

Formation of production indices for higher groupings, taking into account the new type of activity

VI. Adjustment of production indices for the dynamics of military (defense) production

For certain types of activities, production indices obtained on the basis of data on the output of civilian products are adjusted to the dynamics of production of military (defense) products.

Military (defense) products are understood as mass-produced weapons and military equipment, means of their production, testing, control and disposal, components and materials developed on the basis of technical specifications of government customers and (or) produced according to technical documentation ( technical specifications), agreed with government customers, including dual-use products.

To assess the dynamics of the output of military (defense) products, summary (aggregated) information is used in the federal statistical observation form Appendix No. 2 “Information on the production of military (defense) products” to form No. P-1.

For the relevant types of activities for which adjustments will be made, indices of production of military (defense) products in December of the base year are calculated, calculated as a percentage of the average level of the base year, and the corresponding coefficients (the share of value added for military products in the total value added for a specific type economic activity or output of military products in the total volume of output for a specific type of economic activity).

The calculation of production indices for the jth type of economic activity as a percentage of the average level of the base year for military (defense) products is carried out on the basis of information on the growth rate in fixed prices as a percentage of the previous month of the form Appendix No. 2 to form No. P-1.

Coefficients by type of activity represent the share of added value for military products in the total volume of added value for a specific type of economic activity or the share of output for military products in the total volume of output for a specific type of economic activity.

The formation of calculated values, taking into account adjustments to the dynamics of production of military (defense) products, is carried out according to the following algorithm:

* - added value by type of economic activity in the base year, thousand rubles;

K - coefficient;

* - production index by type of economic activity j in % of the average level of the base year, calculated on the basis of data on representative goods;

* - production index by type of economic activity j in % of the average level of the base year for military (defense) products.

If, for types of economic activity for which adjustments are made for the dynamics of production of military (defense) products, the calculation of the production index is carried out by deflating the volumes of produced (shipped) products, then this adjustment is not carried out, since military (defense) products are included in the volume manufactured (shipped) products.

VII. The procedure for clarifying and publishing data on production indices

Revision of data on production indices is a generally accepted international statistical practice associated with the expansion and clarification of the information base.

Recalculating production indices based on updated data on production by type of product makes it possible to improve the quality of index series, which is necessary for constructing short-term forecasts and assessing trends in economic development for the long term.

Clarification of data on production indices for mining, manufacturing, production and distribution of electricity, gas and water is carried out in accordance with the Regulations for the development and publication of data on the products of mining, manufacturing, production and distribution of electricity, gas and water, approved in agreement with the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia June 25, 2009

The frequency and timing of adjustments to production indices depend on the frequency and timing of adjustments to production data by type of product.

The regulations provide for three assessments of industrial production indices and production indices by type of economic activity "Mining", "Manufacturing", "Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water", due to the procedure for maintaining primary accounting at enterprises, the availability of an information base and technology its processing.

The first (preliminary) assessment of production indices is based on primary operational data from warehouse records of enterprises, which are often of an evaluative nature for respondents.

The second (refined) assessment of production indices is carried out on the basis of operational information from warehouse and accounting respondents.

The first and second estimates of production indices are formed based on a limited list of representative goods, taking into account the assessment of the dynamics of industrial production for a category of respondents not observed during the year.

The third (final) assessment of production indices is based on annual accounting and primary accounting data of respondents. The calculation is carried out based on an expanded list of representative goods for a full range of business entities, taking into account the results of sample observations of small enterprises and individual entrepreneurs.

In addition, according to generally accepted global statistical practice, when moving to the calculation of production indices based on a new base year, a retrospective recalculation of index values ​​for a number of previous years is carried out, taking into account the new “basket” and the value added structure of the last base year.

The frequency and timing of providing official statistical information to users are established by the Federal Statistical Work Plan, approved by the Government of the Russian Federation. The Federal Statistical Work Plan is posted on the main page of the official website of the Federal State Statistics Service (www.gks.ru).

Every month, Rosstat publishes operational data on current reporting on output and preliminary calculations of production indices (1 estimate) in urgent information, the operational report "Information on the socio-economic situation in Russia", the report "The socio-economic situation in Russia" and other information and analytical materials.

In order to provide users of statistical information with updated information on production indices, updated data (2nd and subsequent estimates) are published in the periodicals "Information on the socio-economic situation of Russia", "Socio-economic situation of Russia", "Short-term economic indicators of the Russian Federation" , annual official collections of Rosstat, and are also posted on the official website of the Federal State Statistics Service. In this case, data are provided for all months and periods for which clarifications occurred.

______________________________

*(1) International recommendations for the index of industrial production, United Nations Statistics Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, New York, 2010, ST/ESA/STAT/SER.F/107.

*(2) Methodology of short-term business statistics. European Communities - 2002, Cat. N KS-BG-02-002-EN-N.

*(3) Industrial Statistics Guidelines and Methodology, United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) Vienna 2010.

*(4) From 2010 to 2013, 2008 was used as the base year, from 2014 - 2010.

*(5) The single unified “basket” of representative goods used for calculating production indices is posted on the official website of the Federal State Statistics Service (www.gks.ru: “Official Statistics”, “Entrepreneurship”, “Industrial Production”).

*(6) For example, instead of the summary grouping “electric overhead cranes” cranes are included general purpose, special, metallurgical, single-beam (electric crane beams): supporting and suspended, double-beam suspended. When it is possible to obtain data on output for goods not only in physical terms, but also according to the main technical and economic parameter (useful component content, power, load capacity, productivity, etc.), preference is given to the latter meter. For example, the production of turbines and generators is counted not in pieces, but in thousands of kW, canned food - in thousands of standard cans, sewing thread - in thousands of standard spools, chipboards - in standard cubic meters, wallpaper - in thousands of standard pieces, bricks - in millions of conventional bricks, steam boilers - in tons of steam/hours, etc. This allows you to take into account qualitative changes in product groups.

*(7) This is dictated by the difficulties of obtaining online information about products that went for further processing within the same organization. In addition, the final product for one enterprise may be an intermediate product for another.

*(8) For goods accounted for in monetary terms, output volumes for the periods being compared in current prices (i.e., prices of each period) are recalculated into uniform prices of the base year using the deflation method.

*(9) Valuation of goods is carried out in sales prices (excluding VAT, excise taxes, sales tax, export duties and customs duties) at ex-wagon prices at the departure station. When applying ex-wagon prices to the destination station, they exclude the cost of transporting products from the departure station to the destination station; prices ex-manufacturer's warehouse - valuation is carried out at these prices.

Goods sold under an exchange agreement (barter), transferred to consumers free of charge or provided to their employees as payment for labor are valued at the selling price of similar goods.

Goods supplied for export are valued at contract prices excluding VAT, excise tax, sales tax, export duty, customs duties and transportation costs from the departure station to the point of export, taking into account the ruble exchange rate established by the Central Bank of Russia at the time of shipment.

*(10) Definition is given only for the purposes of this Methodology

*(11) Posted on the official website of the Federal State Statistics Service (www.gks.ru: “Official Statistics”, “Entrepreneurship”, “Industrial Production”).

Document overview

An official statistical methodology for calculating the industrial production index has been developed.

This is an aggregated production index for the types of activities “Mining”, “Manufacturing”, “Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water”.

The production index is a relative indicator characterizing the aggregate changes in the production of all types of goods, works and services for the periods being compared.

The indicator is formed primarily on data on the dynamics of output for an established set (“basket”) of core goods in physical or value terms.

Calculation formulas and the procedure for using information resources are given. The algorithm for calculating the index is described.

The methodology for calculating the index of physical volume of industrial production (for the federal and regional levels), approved by the State Statistics Committee of Russia, has been declared invalid.

Industrial production index, abbreviated as IPP. IPP is an indicator of the dynamics of the volume of industrial production, its rise or decline, determined as the ratio of the current volume of production in monetary terms to the volume of industrial production in the previous or other base year. Determined by selecting representative goods, characterized as the most important types of industrial products.

GDP and IPP

• Mining;
• Manufacturing industries;
• Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water.

That is, this index characterizes the change in GDP due to fundamental sectors of the economy.

IPP in Russia

The IPI in Russia is calculated in accordance with the Official Statistical Methodology for Calculating the Industrial Production Index (approved by Rosstat Order No. 301 dated May 8, 2014). Companies representing fundamental industries form the basis of the capitalization of the entire stock market of the Russian Federation. Such companies include: Gazprom, Lukoil, RusHydro, the largest machine-building manufacturers and so on. An increase in IPP indicates an increase in production, which, in turn, increases profits, which can be reflected in the rising value of shares of companies associated with industrial production.

Example of IPP dynamics

If the IPI decreases, the reverse process will not necessarily occur, since inflation increases the revenue and profits of producers even if real production does not grow. Let's consider a hypothetical situation that could have arisen in May 2010.

From these data we can derive three PPI indicators.

These indicators can be interpreted as follows:

• in the first 4 months of 2010, 25% of the goods and services accepted for calculation were produced, more than in the first 4 months of 2009;
• Moreover, in April 2010, 15% more was produced than in April 2009;
• however, in April 2010 it was produced 23% less than in March of the same year.

If we compare this information with changes in GDP for the same periods, we can draw a conclusion about how the volume of production in fundamental industries has changed relative to all other areas of production and services. That is, if the GDP grows faster than GDP, this indicates a faster pace of development of fundamental industries. In a situation where the IPI lags behind GDP growth, the opposite trend is observed.

The industrial production index is

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Industrial production index

Industrial production index (IP) – an indicator of the volume of industrial production in the mining and manufacturing industries, in the field of energy saving and utilities.

The index reflects the growth or decline of production and services in the country, excluding the construction sector. Otherwise it is called “clean production”. Expressed as a percentage.

Industrial production accounts for approximately 40% of the US economy, and is closely related to indicators such as GDP. The advantage of the index is that it takes into account only the volume of production, and not its monetary value.

This makes it one of the main indicators for reflecting the state of the national economy and, accordingly, an important fundamental unit influencing the movement of exchange rates.

A growth in the indicator means a strengthening of the economy and contributes to the growth of the American currency.

The index is recorded for 255 grouped sectors of the economy, each of which has a huge number of industrial enterprises.

The data is based on work record records indicating the number of hours worked by workers in the industrial sector. The total volume for each month is expressed as a percentage of gross production compared to the previous year.

In addition, the Federal Reserve Service (FRS) separately calculates the production diffusion index, which is equal to the percentage of industries where production increased over the past month.

Also inextricably linked with the index of industrial production is another economic indicator - production capacity (Capacity Utilization).

The IP Index is published monthly at 14-15 (GMT) or 17-15 (MSK) of every 15th day by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and shows the change relative to the previous month. Impact on the forex market: average.

The industrial production indicator is a reliable benchmark for tracking the business cycle.

Indicators higher than expected are considered as positive for the dollar, lower than expected - as negative.

Often, index values ​​are analyzed together with the index of optimism of managers of the industrial sector (NAMP Index) and the unemployment rate (Unemployment Rates), since the growth of industrial production leads to a decrease in unemployment and, consequently, to an increase in the income of companies, their stock indices and finally, GDP.

Source: https://freshforex.org/encyclopedia-forex/industrial-production-index/

Production index

The production index is a relative indicator characterizing the change in the scale of production in the periods being compared. The production index is used to analyze the dynamics of the physical volume of production.

There are individual and consolidated production indices. Individual production indices reflect changes in the output of one product and are calculated as the ratio of production volumes of a given type of product in physical terms in the periods being compared.

Composite production indices characterize aggregate changes in all types of products and reflect changes in the value created in the production process as a result of changes only in the physical volume of products produced.

To calculate the consolidated production index, individual indices for specific types products are gradually aggregated into indices by type of activity, subgroups, groups, subclasses, classes and sections of OKVED2 (OK 029–2014 (NACE Rev. 2).

Industrial production index – an aggregated production index for the types of activities “Mining”, “Manufacturing”, “Providing electricity, gas and steam; Air conditioning", "Water supply; drainage, organization of waste collection and disposal, pollution elimination activities.”

Attention!

Transition to the use in statistical practice of new versions of the All-Russian Classifier of Types of Economic Activities (OKVED2) and the All-Russian Classifier of Products by Types of Economic Activities (OKPD2), harmonized, respectively, with the Statistical Classification of Types of Economic Activities in the European Economic Community (NACE Rev.2) and the Statistical Classification of Products by type of activity in the European Economic Community (CPA 2008) implemented from January 1, 2017.

The structure of gross value added by actual types of economic activity OKVED2 for 2010 is used as weights.

Data for the Russian Federation on the industrial production index and production indices by type of economic activity “Mining,” “Manufacturing,” “Providing electricity, gas and steam; Air conditioning", "Water supply; water disposal, organization of waste collection and disposal, pollution elimination activities” are given taking into account an adjustment for informal activities.

Source: http://site/www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/metod/prom/met_ip.htm

Industrial Production

Industrial Production – industrial production index. The indicator reflects changes observed in US industrial production in industries such as mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas (adjusted for inflation).

Who counts and how and why is it important?

The indicator is calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and US trade associations. Each index in the report is derived using the Fisher formula

MV = PQ,

where M is the mass of money in circulation, V is the speed of circulation, P is the price of the product, and Q is the volume of the product.

When calculating, the base year is 2000, and the initial level is always 100. Changes in each index are considered as volume or decline in a specific industry sector.

The index is published monthly, 16 days after the month following the reporting month, at 9:15 AM ET.

As a rule, after its release there is no increase in trading, but the index is important because it reflects data on employment and worker income, and can indirectly speak about business activity.

How to interpret this indicator?

An increase in the index in the short term should be considered as an increase in business activity and employment.

An increase in the index will indicate an increase in employment, and, as a rule, marks an increase in inflation and an increase in interest rates, which is not promising for investors, since it does not promise an increase in profits.

In the same situation, the stock market may go up, because employment growth “promises” that the population will spend more, which is very good for business.

A decrease or slight increase in Industrial Production will most likely form a negative scenario on the stock market.

Source: https://ffin.ru/market/directory/indicators/industrial_production/

IPP

One of the fundamental indices included in the macroeconomic indicator of any country is the Industrial Production Index (IPI).

The industrial production index is a macroeconomic indicator that characterizes the change in the production process for a set of services and goods grouped by the following types All-Russian classifier of types of economic activity: “Manufacturing”, “Mining”, “Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water”.

The industrial production index is calculated monthly and takes into account changes in the physical volumes of products produced, as well as working hours spent and energy consumed.

The output index covers the manufacturing sectors of the economy. Also, this index is an average of the manufacturing, mining, utilities and construction indices.

It is based on physical volume measures and excludes private and public services.

The index of industrial production is an excellent method in research in cases where it is impossible to summarize, but needs to be compared.

The index method is designed to solve the following main problems:

1. determining the characteristics of changes in the general level of complex socio-economic phenomena;
2. analysis of the impact of each factor on the change in the indexed value by excluding the impact of other factors;
3. analysis of the influence of structural changes on changes in the indexed value.

Calculation

Industrial production index data When constructing the industrial production index, the following methods are used:

• direct measurement;
• an estimate that is based on a combination of data on working hours and energy consumption.

The index begins to form when data is received on the dynamics of production and release of goods of a certain line.

For large populations, the index is averaged based on the constituent elements that form these populations.

When forming elementary, large and other aggregates into indices, a classification is created into groups, subgroups, sections, subsections, industrial and production areas, in accordance with the classifier of types of economic activity.

The index is calculated in the following order:

1. Indices are calculated that characterize changes in production for a specific reporting period of time, for example, from the beginning of the year or month.
2. Indices are calculated that characterize changes in production over a certain past period in relation to the average monthly volume of the year taken as the basis.
3. Indices are calculated that characterize the change in production in the current reporting period compared to the previous period, which are obtained by dividing the indices.
4. The calculation of the industrial production index is carried out in several stages, as well as in repeated recalculations for each individual stage.

On initial stage production indices are determined for each type of activity separately, by comparing the output of goods in the reporting period with their output in the base period.

Attention!

Also at this stage, an index of gross output is formed, but not value added.

Influence

The index of industrial production has a tremendous impact on the economic growth of any country.

The growth of the indicator contributes to the strengthening and appreciation of the national currency, the economy and directly affects the market itself.

In the foreign exchange market, the index indicator is also of great importance due to its connection with the dynamics of the business cycle.

Using the dynamics of the index, in moments of anticipation of changes in the policies of central banks, it is possible to track the direction of these upcoming changes.

According to analytical data provided by competent organizations, when the production index decreases, there will not necessarily be a process of decreasing the profits of enterprises, since inflation increases the revenue and profits of producers even if in reality production does not grow.

This is something to ponder for any trader who considers the index a very important tool in assessing future performance, as well as assets in the market itself.

The growth of production itself has a positive effect on the balance of power in the financial market, suggesting an increase in stock prices and positive investor sentiment.

This also means strengthening the country’s economy as a whole, including strengthening its position in the macroeconomics, and this in turn entails increased competition for goods in the main world markets, resulting in an increase in the trade balance and the exchange rate of the national currency.

It is believed that the industrial production index is not one of the important ones, but there have been cases when the use of this indicator from the economy has been useful for fundamental market analysis.

In turn, this indicates the need to consider each indicator separately if the goal is to conduct a high-quality and detailed analysis of the market and not become one of the traders who find themselves “out of work.”

Another important observation that has been studied and fully analyzed by many analysts is the following: when the industrial production index begins to grow faster than GDP, this indicates that fundamental industries are gaining momentum.

When the growth of the index lags behind the growth of gross domestic product, there is a decline in the growth of the same industries.

The State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation publishes reports on the dynamics of industrial production, which contains data on all indicators of volume dynamics, and for each of the following industries in particular:

• fuel industry;
• ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy;
• electric power industry;
• chemical industry;
• forest industry;
• printing;
• mechanical engineering and metalworking;
• light industry;
• medical industry;
• food industry.

In the Eurozone, data on industrial indices are distributed by Eurostat, in the USA - by the Federal Reserve System (which takes into account index indicators to adjust monetary policy), in Japan - by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

Source: https://equity.today/indexes-promyshlennogo-proizvodstva.html

Industrial production

One of the most important components of the economy of any country is industrial production.

At its core, industrial production is the production of ready-to-use products from raw materials using special equipment.

The development of production began in the Middle Ages, when people just began to engage in pottery, processing animal skins, etc.

Already at the turn of the 18th-19th centuries, the industrial revolution took place in England, which later spread to other large countries. After this, production began to use machines and equipment instead of manual labor.

Nowadays, it is impossible to imagine any developed country without modern industrial production.

For economic growth, new plants and factories must always be opened. Old enterprises must constantly improve, because technology is developing more and more rapidly every year, and competition is only growing all the time.

Modern industry consists of two branches:

1. The mining industry is carried out by companies that extract various metals, oil, gas, timber, etc.
2. The manufacturing industry includes enterprises engaged in the processing and processing of extracted materials (mechanical engineering, petroleum products, building materials, woodworking, food and light industry, etc.)

How is an PPI considered?

In order to assess the level at which industry is located in a particular state, industry parameters are constantly being studied. For this purpose, a special indicator was introduced, which evaluates industry in the country.

Attention!

It is called the industrial production index (IPP, industrial production). This indicator shows changes in production volumes in a particular country.

It is calculated by dividing the amount of products produced for the current period by the amount of products produced in the billing period, and the result is multiplied by 100 percent.

First, the index for each product is calculated, the weighting coefficients of these goods are determined, and with their help, industry indices are calculated, which are subsequently combined into a general index of industrial production.

As a result, you can see how general indicator, and in various sections and directions. The index takes into account the following components:

• production volumes;
• working hours;
• wasted energy.

The US Industrial Production Index is published by the research department of the US Federal Reserve on the 15th of the previous month.

To predict the index, indices such as the industrial orders index and the business activity index are usually used.

The index is calculated both for the entire industry in general and for individual groups of goods. Products are distributed along several parameters, but the main divisions are as follows:

1. Mining.
2. Manufacturing industry.
3. Distribution of utilities.

The industrial production index does not include construction production, since this market is subject to strong fluctuations, which will have too strong an impact on the overall indicator.

To study the construction market, there is a similar index that takes into account the same as well as the construction section. It's called the Manufacturing Production Index.

Impact of the index on the economy

Since the index is one of the main indicators of the state of the economy, the state’s GDP greatly depends on it.

Therefore, as a rule, Gross Domestic Product and IPI change in parallel with each other.

If industrial production grows faster than GDP, this indicates that industrial sectors are growing faster than other areas participating in GDP.

Conversely, if industry grows slower than GDP, this means that the level of industry lags behind overall growth.

In addition, based on this index, the following phenomena can be predicted:

• unemployment rate;
• stock indices;
• exchange rates.

The industrial production index greatly influences the currency of the country where the index is published. An increase in the index always leads to an increase in the value of the currency, and a decrease in the index means that the exchange rate will fall.

It is also worth noting that in order to make a decision on buying or selling currency, it is necessary to compare the readings of the industrial production index with other economic parameters, such as business cycles, inflation rates, GDP, etc.

This is important because the growth of this index can be associated not only with an increase in production, but also with an increase in inflation or due to seasonal growth.

Source: http://site/binaryoptionsfull.com/promyshlennoe-proizvodstvo

Industrial Production Index

A country: USA. Definition: An indicator of the dynamics of production volume at enterprises in the manufacturing and mining industries, and in the public services sector.

Description: Shows the total output of national factories, mines, the total volume of utilities, etc.

The Federal Reserve's statistical report contains an indicator of changes in the volume of production of the country's industrial enterprises, stocks and bonds of public enterprises, and a calculation of the used production capacity.

Industrial production is a key indicator of the state of a country's industry. It accounts for about 40 of the entire country's economy, which justifies its high degree of influence on the stock market.

Of particular interest is the percentage change in industrial production compared to the previous month.

If production grows, then the cost of money also increases, which involuntarily stimulates the stock market to grow and the bond market to fall.

Mechanism of influence: Rapid growth in production implies a rise in the cost of money and a fall in the bond market.

However, since this indicator is easier to predict than others, changes in it are reflected in the price in advance and gradually.

Degree of influence: 2. Release frequency: Published monthly in the middle of each month at 09:15 ET. Source: Federal Reserve System.

Source: http://site/forex2.info/industrial_production

IP and share price

Component of GDP – Industrial Production Index. This index can be considered a component of GDP, since it reflects changes in production volume in the following leading sectors of the economy:

1. Mining
2. Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water
3. Manufacturing industries

Essentially, this index shows the change in GDP due to the leading fundamental sectors of the economy.

Attention!

All companies in these industries form the basis of the capitalization of the entire Russian stock market. These include: Lukoil, Gazprom, RusHydro, as well as the largest engineering companies.

The growth of the IPP informs about the growth of production, which increases profits, and in turn this is reflected in the growing price of shares of companies that are associated with industrial production

If there is a decrease in PPI, the reverse process will not occur in mandatory, since inflation can increase producer profits and revenues even when real production does not increase.

For example, if we analyze data from 2009-2010-2011. we can get three PPI indicators

We can interpret the obtained indicators as follows:

• in the first 4 months of 2010, 25% more services and goods were produced than in the first 4 months of 2009
• in April 2010, while production was 15% more than in April 2009
• but in April 2010, production was 23% less compared to March of the same year.

Comparison of GDP dynamics with the dynamics of the IPI indicator

When comparing the data presented above with changes in GDP over the same periods, we can draw a conclusion about how the volume of production has changed in fundamental industries relative to other service and manufacturing sectors.

That is, if the IPI indicator increases faster than GDP, then this indicates an accelerated pace of development of fundamental industries directly.

If the IPI indicator lags behind the growth of the GDP indicator, there is a reverse development trend.

Impact on share price

Undoubtedly, data on the growth of IPP has a positive impact on the market. But often they are already included in the price of shares at the level of previously made forecasts and therefore do not cause a sharp increase in shares, and sometimes, if a more significant increase in IPP was predicted than in fact, then the share price may decrease.

A technique for calculating potential profitability is often used, the essence of which is to compare the current and forecast value of a stock.

The change in the IPI indicator is predicted by analysts and is included in the forecast for the share price of companies that form the fundamental sector of the economy.

The forecast stock price is then compared to its current value, which creates the ability to determine the potential return of the stock.

For example, when predicting an increase in PPI:

1. if a stock has a high potential return, it means that the expected growth in industrial production is not yet reflected in the current stock price
2. if the potential return of a stock is close to zero, then the current price already includes expectations for changes in the IPI among investors

conclusions

The PPI, being part of GDP, allows us to identify changes in real production volume in fundamental sectors of the economy.

By comparing the index of industrial production and GDP, one can determine the performance of companies in fundamental sectors of the economy relative to other sectors.

Often, news about changes in the IPI indicator are already included in the stock price due to forecasts. Therefore, upon exit real indicators they do not always have a significant impact on quotes.

Source: http://site/tempofox.com/ipp-i-kursovaya-stoimost-akcij/

Impact of news on the Forex market

The principle of influence of this subgroup is based on the axiom that the value of any currency is derived from the state of development of the economy of a given country.

The stability of economic development determines the interest of foreign investors in investing in it and, accordingly, the demand for a certain currency.

They include such key indicators as trade and payments balances, inflation rates, unemployment, gross national product, etc.

The FOREX market has developed a unified system of currency quotes through the US dollar.

Thus, the development of the American economy and the value of the American dollar is an important, if not decisive, factor determining the direction of the market, common to the major currencies.

Therefore, the main attention of currency brokers or dealers is directed to the US dollar and its behavior that causes certain reactions from other currencies.

True, this does not at all reduce the influence of other factors - the policies of national banks or the influence of adjacent markets, which will be discussed briefly below.

Key indicators are published monthly or quarterly in the United States economic development.

Trade negotiations

Trade negotiations are important integral part economic policy any country. In particular, the ratio of imports and exports provides such an important indicator of economic development as the trade deficit.

Attention!

For the US, the trade deficit has been a major problem over the past few years, playing a significant role in the fall of the US dollar against major European currencies.

The result of trade negotiations finds an immediate response in the market, sometimes more than significant.

Central bank meetings

The main task of central banks is to regulate the internal economic life of the country - as the main task. In addition, adjusting the internal and external value of the currency is also his responsibility.

Therefore, any meetings central bank- or more precisely, its working committee - attracts the close attention of participants in the foreign exchange market.

One of the main means of stimulating or, conversely, slowing down economic growth, attracting foreign capital, the attractiveness of government bonds, and, as a result, the value of the currency, is the regulation of interest rates.

Source: http://site/krok-forex.ru/finance_22-3.php

Description of the main economic indicators

As is known, the release of economic indicators of the state has a significant impact on the exchange rate of a given country. Below are the main indicators broken down by national economies.

United States of America (USA)

Consumer confidence/Consumer confidence indicator. This survey is an attempt to measure consumer optimism. The index has been calculated since 1967. At first it was equal to 100.

Renders limited influence to the market, since it may not reflect the real state of the economy. However, it has traditionally been used to forecast employment trends and the overall health of the economy.

The growth of the index value is positive factor for the development of the national economy and leads to an increase in the dollar exchange rate.

Its value is published after the 20th of each month at 10:00 AM EST (New York).

Determines changes in the level of retail prices for a “basket” of goods and services.

Index consumer prices is considered more reliable if it does not take into account the food and energy industries.

When calculating the index, prices for imported goods and services are taken into account. The consumer price index is the main indicator of the level of inflation in the country. This index is analyzed together with the PPI (Producer Price Index) indicator.

If the economy develops in normal conditions, then an increase in CPI and PPI indicators may lead to an increase in basic interest rates in the country.

This, in turn, leads to an increase in the dollar exchange rate, as the attractiveness of investing in a currency with a higher interest rate increases.

Its value is published in the middle of each month (shortly after the PPI is released) at 08:30 EST (New York).

Current account/Current account balance. It is the ratio between the amount of payments coming from abroad and the amount of payments going abroad.

A positive balance (or a decrease in the negative balance) is a favorable factor for the growth of the national currency. Has limited impact on the market.

Its value is published every quarter, in the middle of the publication month at 10:00 EST (New York).

Existing home sales secondary market Shows the number of houses sold on the secondary real estate market per year.

Can provide insight into consumer optimism (buying confidence) and their ability to buy expensive items. Due to the nature of the real estate market, these data are subject to seasonal fluctuations.

The construction process is directly related to the state of income of the population, therefore an increase in construction volumes characterizes the improvement of its well-being and the healthy development of the economy.

Production orders include orders for durable goods (more than 50% of all orders) and non-durable goods.

Non-durable goods include food, clothing, light industrial goods and goods designed to be used with durable goods.

Durable goods include goods with a service life of more than three years. These include: cars, furniture, etc.

This indicator has a limited impact on the market. Particular attention is paid to trends in its development.

An increase in the index value is a positive factor for the development of the national economy and leads to an increase in the dollar exchange rate. Its value is published on the first day of each month at 10:00 EST (New York).

GDP - Gross domestic product/Gross domestic product (GDP). It is the main indicator reflecting the state of the national economy.

According to the Keynesian model of economic development, GDP can be represented in the following form: GDP = C + I + S + E - M, where C is consumption, I is investment, S is government spending, E is export, M is import.

GDP is expressed as an index relative to the previous period of consideration, and as an absolute value of the sum of prices of goods and services produced.

Has a significant impact on the market. GDP growth leads to an increase in the exchange rate of the national currency.

It is one of the main indicators reflecting the state of the national economy.

The index shows the level of change in the output of industrial production and public services in the country. Its value is published in the middle of each month at 09:15 EST (New York).

It is the difference between the sum of prices of goods exported outside a given state and the sum of prices of goods imported into the territory of this state.

That is, the difference between exports and imports. If the sum of prices of exported goods exceeds the sum of prices of imported goods, then the trade balance is active (positive balance); if imports exceed exports, it is passive (negative balance).

A positive balance (or a decrease in the negative balance) is a favorable factor for the growth of the national currency. Has a significant impact on the market.

Its value is published on the third week of each month (usually Thursday) at 08:30 EST (New York).

Initial jobless claims/Number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. Shows the weekly change in the number of claims for unemployment benefits.

Published every week on Thursdays at 08:30 EST (New York). These numbers do not always reflect the true picture of events, as they are sometimes distorted by short-term factors such as federal or local holidays.

This indicator can give an idea of ​​what the Nonfarm payrolls will be next time.

For example, if the value of the Jobless claims indicator consistently decreases over the course of a month, then there is a high probability that the value of the Nonfarm payrolls indicator will be high.

Has limited impact on the market. A decrease in the number of applications for unemployment benefits is a favorable factor for the growth of the dollar.

ISM Manufacturing/ISM Manufacturing Index. ISM - Institute Supply Management.

The index, calculated by this organization, represents the results of a survey of purchasing managers in the industrial sector.

Attention!

The indicator is used to assess changes in new production orders, industrial output, employment, as well as inventories and supplier speed.

The index does not include the state of California. Since industrial production is not a source of consumer demand, this indicator is approached with caution.

The value is published on the first business day of each month at 10:00 AM EST (New York). Has limited impact on the market. An increase in the index value leads to an increase in the dollar exchange rate.

ISM Non-Manuf. Composite/ISM Index for Non-Manufacturing Sector. Represents the results of a survey of managers in the service sector in order to assess the changes taking place in this industry.

Figures below “45-50” are an indicator of a slowdown in economic development. Often the value of this index is influenced by psychological factors rather than the actual state of affairs.

The process of consumption of services tends to change at a relatively constant speed, therefore, sharp changes in the value of this indicator are influenced by psychological factors, and when analyzing the index, special attention is paid to this.

Its value is published on the first day of each month at 10:00 EST (New York) one day after the publication of the ISM Manufacturing index.

Leading indicators index. It is a weighted average index of such indicators as:

• "production orders"
• “number of applications for unemployment benefits”,
• “money supply indicators M”,
• "size of the average working week"
• "real estate construction permits"
• prices of major shares,
• "orders for durable goods"
• "Consumer Confidence Index".

It is believed that it characterizes the development of the economy over the next 6 months.

There is also a rule of thumb that if the indicator value is in the negative area for three months in a row, it is an indicator of a slowdown in the country's economic development.

Has limited impact on the market. Its limited impact is explained by the fact that the index value is released a month after the reporting period, when almost all the main indicators have already been published.

An increase in the index value leads to an increase in the dollar exchange rate. Its value is published, as a rule, on the first day of each month at 10:00 EST (New York).

New home sales/Volume of housing sales on the primary market. Shows the number of housing sold on the primary real estate market per year.

Can provide insight into consumer optimism (buying confidence) and their ability to buy expensive items.

Net long-term TIC flows/Net volume of purchases of US securities by foreign investors.

Represents the difference between the volume of securities purchases by foreign investors from US resident sellers and the volume of securities sales by foreign investors to US resident sellers. This refers to various categories of long-term securities.

Nonfarm payrolls/Changes in the number of people employed in the non-farm sector

It is called "the indicator that moves markets." There is a rule of thumb that increasing its value by 200,000 per month equates to a 3.0% increase in GDP.

Typically published on the first Friday of each month at 08:30 EST (New York).

Determines the change in the price level for the “basket” of goods produced in industry. Until 1978, it was called the Wholesale price index.

The selling price includes the cost of labor and gives an idea of ​​the inflation associated with changes in labor costs.

The Producer Price Index is considered more reliable if it excludes the food and energy industries. When calculating the index, prices for imported goods and services are not taken into account.

Has a significant impact on the market. In anticipation of an increase in key interest rates, an increase in its value leads to an increase in the dollar exchange rate.

Published every month, usually the week following the release of Nonfarm payrolls, at 08:30 EST (New York).

The index shows changes in sales volume in the area retail. Characterizes the level of consumer spending and demand.

This indicator is divided into: “car sales” and “sales of everything else.” Since the number of cars sold is a very variable value, the most accurate information is contained in the part of the indicator that does not take into account “car sales”.

The growth in retail trade is a positive factor for the development of the national economy and leads to an increase in the exchange rate of the national currency.

Published in the middle of each month at 08:30 EST (New York). Has limited impact on the market (mainly in the medium and long term).

Shows the percentage of the number of unemployed people to the total working-age population. It comes out simultaneously with the “Nonfarm payrolls” indicator.

Has a significant impact on the market. Typically, an analysis of the unemployment rate is carried out in the context of figures reflecting the value of the “Nonfarm payrolls” indicator.

For example, an increase in the value of the “Nonfarm payrolls” indicator with an increase in the unemployment rate indicates an increase in unemployment in the agricultural sectors of the economy, etc.

Published, as a rule, on the first Friday of each month at 08:30 EST (New York) simultaneously with the Nonfarm payrolls indicator.

U. of Michigan confidence/Consumer confidence indicator from the University of Michigan. This index represents the results of a consumer survey on confidence in the current economic situation.

The survey is conducted by employees of the University of Michigan, USA. The report is published twice a month: in the second week (usually on Friday) around the 15th of the reporting month (preliminary), and two weeks later (final).

Published at 10:00 EST (New York). This indicator is nothing more than a reflection of the desire of consumers to spend their money.

Has limited impact on the market. An increase in the index value leads to an increase in the dollar exchange rate.

Japan

Current account total/Balance of payments. The indicator is the ratio between the amount of payments coming from abroad and the amount of payments going abroad.

If payments received by a country exceed payments to other countries and international organizations, the balance of payments is active (positive balance), but if, on the contrary, it is passive (negative balance).

A positive balance (or a decrease in the negative balance) is a favorable factor for the growth of the national currency. Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.

Consumer price index (CPI). Determines changes in the price level for a “basket” of consumer goods. The consumer price index is the main indicator of the level of inflation in the country. Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.

Industrial production/Change in industrial production volume The initial index value is released at the end of each month.

After two weeks, the updated index value is released. An increase in this indicator leads to an increase in the exchange rate of the national currency. Has a significant impact on the market.

Attention!

Leading indices of business conditions (LEI)/Indices of leading and coinciding indicators. The Leading Indicators Index is a weighted average of 13 different leading indicators.

Used to determine the future state of the economy. The index of coinciding indicators consists of 11 indicators and is designed to assess the current state of the economy (an indicator level of 50% is “zero”). Issued monthly. Weak influence on the market.

Retail sales/Change in retail trade volume. The indicator reflects changes in the level of retail trade. The statistics cover department stores and supermarkets.

Shows the level of consumer spending and demand. Published monthly. Has little influence on the market.

Tankan report/Quarterly economic review published by the Research and Statistics Department of the Bank of Japan. Quarterly Economic Review published by the Research and Statistics Department of the Bank of Japan.

The review is compiled based on assessments of more than 8,000 companies, firms and institutions on the following economic parameters:

1. business conditions;
2. production and sales;
3. supply and demand, price level;
4. income;
5. direct investments;
6. employment;
7. tax conditions.

Tankan is the most important Japanese indicator.

High unemployment, although reflecting high labor efficiency, can jeopardize economic recovery because it encourages accumulation rather than consumption. Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.

Domestic CGPI (Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index). Reflects changes in the price level of large quantities of goods.

It is calculated as a weighted average of three components: domestic wholesale prices, wholesale export prices and wholesale import prices.

This index is considered a better indicator of inflation than the CPI, as it directly reflects the state of the business sector. The indicator is taken into account by the market.

Great Britain

Non-EU trade balance/Trade balance excluding trade turnover with EU countries

Gross domestic product (GDP)

Despite the importance of the indicator, its influence on the market is reduced because its value is usually predicted by the market based on other data, and also due to repeated revisions of the GDP value after the first release. Published quarterly.

Industrial production/Change in industrial production volume. Includes the volume of production of the processing industry (manufacturing production), and also takes into account the volume of production in such industries as mining and processing of minerals, utilities.

It is an indicator of economic growth. The indicator is not decisive for the direction of economic development, since more than 60% of the gross domestic product is currently provided by the service sector. Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.

M4 money supply/Change in the volume of the M4 money supply. The most commonly used indicator is changes in the money supply.

Includes the amount of currency in circulation, the total amount of loans issued by banks, and the amount of government borrowing.

M4 is considered a good indicator for the inflation rate. Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.

Manufacturing production/Changes in the volume of production of the processing industry. It is an indicator of economic growth.

The value of the indicator for the market is small, since the contribution of the manufacturing industry to the gross domestic product is Lately less than 20%. Published monthly.

Producer input prices (PPI input)/Producer purchasing price index. It is defined as a change in the price level for components and semi-finished products in industry (an increase in purchase prices may not affect the inflation index, since it is possible to reduce costs in the production process).

Attention!

A strong indicator of inflation. Of the total indicator value, a part is usually isolated that does not take into account prices for food, alcohol, tobacco products and fuel (prices for these goods are considered a very variable value). Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.

Producer output prices (PPI output)/Producer selling price index. Defined as a change in the level of selling prices for goods in industry. A strong indicator of inflation.

Reflects inflationary pressures on the economy from producers (an increase in selling prices may not affect the inflation index, since trade costs may be reduced).

Of the total indicator value, a part is usually isolated that does not take into account prices for food, alcohol, tobacco products and fuel (prices for these goods are considered a very variable value). Published monthly. Has a significant impact on the market.

PMI - Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (supply and demand research institute).

The index reflects changes in the rate of industrial production. Published monthly. An indicator value above 50% reflects an increase in the rate of industrial production, below 50% - a slowdown. The indicator is taken into account by the market.

Retail price index (RPI)/Retail price index. Determines changes in the price level for a “basket” of consumer goods. The inflation rate is measured by the retail price index excluding mortgage loan payments.

The retail price index, calculated using a single formula, for comparison with similar indices in other countries, is called harmonized (HICP).

If the index growth rate exceeds the planned value, then the Bank of England usually increases interest rates. Published monthly. Has a significant impact on the market.

Retail Sales/Change in retail trade volume. It is an indicator of the level of consumption. If the level of consumption is higher than the level of production, this usually leads to increased inflation.

It should be noted that the index retail sales per month is a very variable value. The average value of the index over the previous three months better describes what is happening. Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.

Claimant count rate/Unemployment rate. Claimant count - the number of applications of unemployed people for employment in employment centers.

The lower the unemployment rate, the more people are paid, causing inflation to rise. Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.

Germany

Gross domestic product (GDP). The sum of goods and services produced in a country, expressed in prices.

IFO survey/Review of the German research institute IFO. The survey assesses the level of business activity in the country. The indicator value can vary from 80 to 120; the level of business activity in 1991 is taken as 100. Published monthly. Has a significant impact on the market.

Industrial production/Change in industrial production volume. Shows the level of change in industrial production in the country.

Attention!

Factory orders/Change in the volume of production orders. Shows the change in the volume of products produced by the manufacturing industry. Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.

Producer price index (PPI). Determines the change in the selling price level for industrial goods. It is an indicator of inflation. Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.

Retail sales/Change in retail trade volume. It is an indicator of the level of consumption.

If the level of consumption is higher than the level of production, this usually leads to increased inflation. Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market

Unemployment/Unemployment rate

Has a strong influence on decisions made by politicians and the central bank. Published monthly. Has a significant impact on the market.

ZEW Survey. A key indicator of investor confidence. Calculated based on a survey of 322 analysts and institutional investors.

Reflects the ratio of positive and negative economic expectations for the next six months. If the majority of respondents are optimistic, the indicator is above zero. If you are pessimistic, lower. Has a significant impact on the market

Eurozone

CPI/Consumer Price Index. Determines changes in the price level for a “basket” of consumer goods.

The consumer price index is the main indicator of the level of inflation in the country. Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.

GDP/Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The sum of goods and services produced in a country, expressed in prices.

The value of the indicator, by the time it is released, is usually well predicted by the market based on other data, so it does not have a big impact on the market. Published quarterly. The index value is revised several times.

Industrial production/Change in industrial production volume. Shows the level of change in industrial production in the country.

The indicator takes into account manufacturing and extractive industries, forestry and electricity generation. Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.

Purchasing managers index (PMI)/PMI Index. PMI - Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (supply and demand research institute). Reflects changes in the pace of industrial production.

Published monthly. An indicator value above 50% reflects an increase in the rate of industrial production, below 50% - a slowdown. The indicator is taken into account by the market.

Trade balance/Foreign trade balance. The difference between exports and imports, expressed in prices.

The index is gradually losing its influence on the market, as capital flows rather than goods become more important. At the same time, an increase in imports indicates an increase in the level of consumption in the country, and an increase in exports indicates an increase in the level of production.

In the UK, it is customary to separately highlight the value of the trade balance with countries outside the European Union. Published monthly.

Unemployment rate. The indicator is very important for policymakers in Germany and Europe (since Europe traditionally has a high unemployment rate, which causes concern among the population).

Has a strong influence on decisions made by politicians and the central bank. Published monthly. Has a significant impact on the market.

One of the fundamental indices included in the macroeconomic indicator of any country is ( IPP, Industrial Production Index). In order to understand its significance in the country’s economy and other industries, it is necessary to study its definition.

Industrial production index is a macroeconomic indicator that characterizes changes in the production process with a set of services and goods grouped into the following types of the all-Russian classifier of economic activities: “ Processing», « Mining», « Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water».

Industrial production index is calculated monthly and takes into account changes in the physical volumes of products produced, as well as working hours spent and energy consumed.

You can also follow the industrial production index data in , and find out the next publication date of the macroeconomic indicator.

The role of the industrial production index

The output index covers the manufacturing sectors of the economy. Also, this index is an average of the manufacturing, mining, utilities and construction indices. It is based on physical volume measures and excludes private and public services.

The index of industrial production is an excellent method in research in cases where it is impossible to summarize, but needs to be compared. That is why one of the proven methods used in statistical calculations, which allows us to characterize changes in certain phenomena, is the index method.

The index method is designed to solve the following main problems:

• determining the characteristics of changes in the general level of complex socio-economic phenomena;
• analysis of the impact of each factor on the change in the indexed value by excluding the impact of other factors;
• analysis of the influence of structural changes on changes in the indexed value.

Calculation of industrial production index

When constructing the industrial production index, the following methods are used:

• direct measurement;
• an estimate that is based on a combination of data on working hours and energy consumption.

The index begins to form upon receipt data on production dynamics And release of goods of a certain line. Next, the division and formation of indices takes place depending on the type of economic activity.

For large populations, the index is averaged based on the constituent elements that form these populations.

When forming elementary, large and other aggregates into indices, a classification is created into groups, subgroups, sections, subsections, industrial and production areas, in accordance with the classifier of types of economic activity.

The index is calculated in the following order:

1. Indices are calculated that characterize changes in production for a specific reporting period of time, for example, from the beginning of the year or month.
2. Indices are calculated that characterize changes in production over a certain past period in relation to the average monthly volume of the year taken as the basis.
3. Indices are calculated that characterize the change in production in the current reporting period compared to the previous period, which are obtained by dividing the indices.

The calculation of the industrial production index is carried out in several stages, as well as in repeated recalculations for each individual stage.

At the initial stage, production indices are determined for each type of activity separately, by comparing the output of goods in the reporting period with their output in the base period. Also at this stage, an index of gross output is formed, but not value added.

The influence of the industrial production index on markets, the stock exchange and the country’s economy

The index of industrial production has a tremendous impact on the economic growth of any country. The growth of the indicator contributes to the strengthening and appreciation of the national currency, the economy and directly affects the market itself.

In the foreign exchange market, the index indicator is also of great importance due to its connection with the dynamics of the business cycle. Using the dynamics of the index, in moments of anticipation of changes in the policies of central banks, it is possible to track the direction of these upcoming changes.

According to analytical data provided by competent organizations, when the production index decreases, not necessary there will be a process of decreasing the profits of enterprises, since inflation increases the revenue and profits of producers even if in reality production does not grow. This is something to ponder for any trader who considers the index a very important tool in assessing future performance, as well as assets in the market itself.

The growth of production itself has a positive effect on the balance of power in the financial market, suggesting an increase in stock prices and positive investor sentiment. This also means strengthening the country’s economy as a whole,including strengthening positions in the macroeconomics, and this in turn entails increased competition for goods in the main world markets, resulting in an increase in the trade balance and the exchange rate of the national currency.

It is believed that the industrial production index is not one of the important ones, but there have been cases when the use of this indicator from the economy has been useful for fundamental market analysis.

In turn, this indicates the need to consider each indicator separately if the goal is to conduct a high-quality and detailed analysis of the market and not become one of the traders who find themselves “ out of work».

Another important observation, which has been studied and fully analyzed by many analysts is the following: when the industrial production index begins to grow faster, it indicates that the fundamental industries are gaining momentum. When the growth of the index lags behind the growth of gross domestic product, there is a decline in the growth of the same industries.

The State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation publishes reports on the dynamics of industrial production, which contains data on all indicators of volume dynamics, and for each of the following industries in particular:

• fuel industry;
• ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy;
• electric power industry;
• chemical industry;
• forest industry;
• printing;
• mechanical engineering and metalworking;
• light industry;
• medical industry;
• food industry.

In the Eurozone, data on industrial indices are distributed by Eurostat, in the USA - by the Federal Reserve System ( which takes into account index performance to adjust monetary policy), in Japan – by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

If you find an error, please highlight a piece of text and click Ctrl+Enter.

In the process of adapting international recommendations and standards in the field of enterprise statistics and taking into account national characteristics of accounting and statistics, a domestic approach to constructing integrated assessments of the dynamics of production is gradually being formed.

Calculation method integral production index, developed by the state statistics bodies of Ukraine, assumes its calculation as weighted average of industrial and construction production indices. The basis of the weight structure when calculating the index at the class level (group, section, subsection, section of KVED: C, D E, D) provide data on the distribution of added value created in industry and construction

According to international standards, the indicator "industrial production index" characterizes the change in the volume of gross value added created in industry at factor cost (i.e., minus any taxes on production) during the periods selected for comparison. The basic formula for this index is the standard Laspeyres volume index

Where And- reporting period; b - base period;G prices for finished products; A - prices for materials; 6 - quantity of materials in natural units; N number of i-th goods (product groups); M quantity of materials, raw materials.

Due to the complexity and impossibility of implementing this formula in practice in full, there is a need to search for a simplified approach to constructing the index.

The basis of the domestic approach to determining the integral production index, developed by employees of the Scientific and Technical Complex of Statistical Research and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, is the method of the so-called constant set of representative goods.

Representative products- this is a set of goods specialized for a certain type of activity (at the level of a group, class), which are homogeneous in their consumer properties and purpose in a certain group or class of KVED. This set is used by international statistical agencies and most countries. According to the proposed approach, the index acts as a weighted average value, the basis of the weight structure of which is data on the distribution of added value between industrial activities from the corresponding individual indices of each product.

The basic information for constructing the index is data on production in physical terms without attempting to determine the raw materials consumed. It is assumed that the structure of added value by type of economic activity is constant for a certain period of time. It is recorded in the weighting system for calculating the index. As a consequence, the original Laspeyres formula for calculating the index of industrial production is transformed and takes on the following form

where / is the reporting period; b- base period; ts- quantity of products in natural units; G- prices for finished products; And number of goods (product groups); AND quantity their goods (product groups).

The calculation of the industrial production index is based on a representative, usually permanent, list of goods. Most of the representative products are in kind. For individual representative goods for which it is impossible to correctly account for products in physical terms, cost estimates are used with their further deflation. For products with a long production cycle, data on man-hours worked is used.

Indices calculated at the class or group level of KVED, respectively, are aggregated into indices at the level of section, subsection, section and industry as a whole.

The algorithm for calculating the index of industrial production consists of two stages.

And the stage involves the calculation of indices for goods presented in physical, value terms, as well as for products of a long production cycle at the level of the OKVED class (group):

A) calculation of indices for goods presented in physical terms and valued at average annual prices of the base year

Where t reporting period; b- base period; k- q 9 eurozone - quantity of products for the reporting month and on average for the month of the base year; G average unit price per month of the base year (calculated); P the quantity in a given class (group) of goods representative of OKVED, selected for calculation.

Example 9.5. . The methodology for calculating the product index for the type of activity “Iron Ore Mining” (two representative products were selected) is illustrated in Table. 9.8.

Table 9.8. V

The index of industrial production for two goods representing the type of activity “Iron Ore Mining” for January of the reporting year compared to the monthly average value of the base year is equal to

b) calculation of indices for goods, works (services), presented in value terms, using deflation

Where And reporting period; b- base period; To serial number of the class (group); U,^ U;b - volume of production of the representative product at the class (group) level of the class (group) of the class, respectively, in the reporting month (AND) and on average per month of the base year (b); i-m - producer price index y"th representative product during the period / before the monthly average of the base year; T the number of goods involved in the calculation;

c) calculation of indices for products with a long production cycle is based on data on man-hours worked in the reporting month in comparison with the average monthly value of the number of man-hours worked in the base year and adjusted for the labor productivity index:

where / is the reporting period; b - base period; To serial number of the class (group); T. T'- the number of man-hours worked in the reporting month and on average for the month of the base year; and^b- labor productivity index of the previous reporting year compared to the base year; K^- the ratio of changes in the calendar number of days in the reporting month to the average monthly value of the base year.

Labor productivity is defined as the ratio of the volume of products sold per year to the average number of employees in the corresponding type of activity, adjusted for price changes. The labor productivity index characterizes the change in productivity in the previous year compared to the base year.

Example 9.6. . Methodology for calculating the product index for a type of activity "Construction and repair of ships" illustrated in table. 9.9

Table 9.9. V

For products of the type of activity "Construction and repair of ships" the index will be

Stage II provides calculation of indices for a group, section (section) of KVED and industry as a whole as from weighted average indices calculated for classes (groups, sections, sections).

How weight is used added value for each class (group, division, section)

where L/ is the number of classes (groups, sections, sections); eat - index Who class (group, section); N^ - the volume of added value for each class (group, section, sections) in the base year; (Iy/b = ІчкЛІь or Цаь or

Indices are calculated similarly for each month of the year, for example, for the month preceding the reporting month.

Construction Products Index should ideally measure changes in the monthly volumes of value added created in section D according to the KVED. The contribution of construction enterprises to the creation of gross domestic product is directly determined by the volume of work performed by workers employed in this industry and the number of man-hours worked by them. In turn, construction is a long-term production, which makes it difficult to directly obtain high-quality monthly discrete data.

Taking into account the possibility of obtaining data on the results of the work of construction enterprises, the construction index methodology is based on data on the volumes of products produced in construction. The basic formula for calculating the construction index, as well as for the industrial production index, is the Laspeyres physical volume index (9.12).

Index of construction products as a whole for the type of activity "Construction" calculated as the sum of weighted averages from the construction indices of buildings and structures, calculated as the ratio of the volume of production in the reporting month, to the average monthly value of the volume of production in the base year (adjusted to the corresponding price indices for the construction of buildings and engineering structures). The share of each type of construction product in its total volume in the base year is chosen as weight.

where!™™ИГ - index of construction products; V- the volume of work performed on the construction of buildings in the current year; Ugh - the average monthly volume of work performed on the construction of buildings in the base year;

The price index for construction and installation work on building construction is calculated to the average monthly value in the base year; AUS - the share of the added value of building construction in the added value of the construction of buildings and structures in the base year, the share of the volume of the corresponding type of construction products in the base year; Vi--- the volume of work performed on the construction of engineering structures in the current year; Ub8 ~ the average monthly volume of work performed on the construction of engineering structures in the base year; /"^ - price index for construction and installation work on the construction of engineering structures, calculated to the monthly average in the base year; LU^- the share of the added value of construction of structures in the added value of construction of buildings and structures in the base year.

Example 9.7. . The methodology for calculating the construction product index is illustrated in Table. 9.10

Table 9.10. V

For construction products the index will be

Having calculated the indices of industrial and construction products, integral production index calculated by the formula

where - is the reporting period; b- base period; AND"?- index of industrial production; I,/b- index of construction products; uh, uh- volume of added value created in industry and construction

in the base year; ^ - total value added.

Derived indices to compare the integral index for certain types of economic activity for any period chosen as the base are calculated as follows.

First, indices are calculated for each month of the current year for the corresponding month of the previous year using the formula

The index for a period is defined as the ratio of the sums of monthly indices made up of selected periods. For example, index from the first quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2004

Where Ilqu2005 - index from the first quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2004; /Jo-s/? ~~ indices of January, February and March 2005 in the corresponding months of the base year; І2ш)ь ~ indices for January, February and March 2004 in the corresponding months of the base year.

This procedure is identical to direct comparison of average monthly volumes, since the base year data is arithmetically reduced.

Significant differences in the main trends in the dynamics of production and sales of products predetermine the need for parallel tracking of these dynamics using the production index, the index of new orders and the turnover index.