New increase in gasoline prices. Why gasoline is becoming more expensive: version of the Russian Fuel Union

It has become known that next year in Russia there will be an increase in the price of excise taxes, as a result of which the price of gasoline will increase. Experts talk about too high a rise in prices, but Anton Siluanov excludes the fact that there will be a sharp rise in prices.

According to information received from the Accounts Chamber, starting next year, the excise tax will be increased by 1.5 times, this in turn will entail an increase in fuel prices. If this happens, additional measures will need to be taken.

How much will gasoline prices go up?
Starting from January next year, the excise tax price on gasoline will be 12,374 rubles/ton, in this case, the price increase is +49.9%. The cost of diesel fuel will be 8,541 rubles/ton, the increase in price is +66.3%. As of today, it is equal to 8,213 rubles/ton and 5,665 rubles/ton.

Experts argue that gasoline will rise in price not only due to an increase in excise tax prices, but also due to an increase in VAT by 2%, which will ultimately amount to 20%. Therefore, there will not be a sharp rise in prices.

No races are planned. Despite the increase in excise taxes, starting from January 1 next year, we have a negative excise tax mechanism, which will be transferred to oil refining companies, as a result of which this increase in load will be compensated, the minister said.

Some time ago, Alexander Novakov said that gasoline and diesel fuel would rise in price at the rate of inflation. The government has a method that will regulate rising prices for excise taxes and other factors that affect the cost of fuel.

The Russian authorities will do everything possible to prevent a sharp rise in prices; this could lead to discontent among the population. Prices can be contained through compensation payments to refineries. Thus, experts suggest that next year you will have to pay 3 or 4 rubles more for 1 liter of fuel. more expensive than now.

The Accounts Chamber talks about a new jump in retail gasoline prices. Auditors believe that the reason may be another increase in excise taxes on fuel from January 1, 2019.

“An increase in the excise tax by 1.5 times from January 1, 2019 may again lead to a sharp increase in gasoline prices and require the adoption of additional compensatory and deterrent measures,” says the Accounts Chamber in its conclusion on the draft budget for 2019-2021.

In an unfavorable scenario, additional measures will need to be taken. It should be recalled that in the summer the authorities said that from January next year the excise tax on diesel fuel and gasoline would rise by 2.7 thousand rubles. and 3.7 thousand rubles. per ton.

Motor fuel prices were supposed to increase this year, starting from July 1 by 700 rubles, which would ultimately amount to 11,892 thousand per 1 ton of gasoline and 8,258 thousand rubles per 1 ton of diesel fuel. But in the spring there was a sharp increase in prices for petroleum products, as a result of which the price of fuel at gas stations exceeded 40 rubles. for 1 liter, there are regions where the price was 50 rubles. per liter

To prevent an increase in retail prices, Dmitry Kozak, who is the Deputy Prime Minister for the Fuel and Energy Complex, had to independently negotiate with the oil industry. As a result, instead of maintaining prices, they were reduced by 3,000 rubles for gasoline and by 2,000 rubles for diesel fuel. Only this helped stabilize the situation, but nevertheless there was no significant reduction.

The Accounts Chamber noted that the reduction in excise taxes on gasoline made it possible to slightly reduce retail prices by 0.2%. But this is not enough to compensate for rising prices.

Some time ago, independent sellers as well as representatives of Rostopliv said that an increase in gasoline prices was inevitable.

The authorities claim that they will do everything possible to prevent a serious increase in retail prices.

Fuel prices increased during the holidays due to the VAT increase. Should we expect further growth? How are independent gas stations doing?

Gasoline in Russia has risen in price due to an increase in VAT. During the New Year holidays, fuel sellers began to increase prices for gasoline and diesel fuel at their gas stations. According to the Kommersant newspaper, fuel prices are rising mainly at gas stations of large oil companies, which are winning back the VAT increase from January 1 to 20%.

At Lukoil and Bashneft gas stations in Bashkiria, the increase in prices for gasoline and diesel fuel reached 80 kopecks. Gasoline and diesel at gas stations in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region have risen in price by 50-70 kopecks since the beginning of the year.

At the St. Petersburg Exchange, where wholesale fuel is sold, trading has not been held since December 27 due to the New Year holidays. Moreover, from January 1, excise taxes on gasoline and diesel fuel in Russia increased by one and a half times.

It was predictable that the price would rise, he says President of the Independent Fuel Union Pavel Bazhenov.

— The current growth that we see is a price increase of 1.7%. This is precisely an increase in order to make up for the VAT increase, the predicted and planned increase. Regulators have stated this, and oil companies have permission for this - for such an increase. In general, it is assumed that growth within the framework of the containment policy will be 1.7% in January, which is now happening. Well, then prices will rise in accordance with inflation. That is, about 6% evenly throughout the year. But let’s not forget that on March 31, our agreement on freezing prices ends, and either there will be a new agreement, or prices will be released. It is still difficult to understand where this will all lead.

— Regarding independent gas stations: many simply closed. How do they generally feel now? Is this trend continuing?

— Now the situation is better. The problem is that it will most likely not be short-lived. But before the new year, our export alternative became less attractive in relation to domestic market prices. The domestic market has become premium. Accordingly, this situation began to put pressure on the wholesale price within the country. Wholesale prices began to decline. Marginality has appeared, which allows you to work more or less profitably. But this was before all major taxes were raised.

Some experts predict that after the New Year holidays, independent gas stations will also increase prices. In turn, Maxim Dyachenko, managing partner of Petroleum Trading, believes that further growth should not be expected.

Maxim Dyachenko Managing Partner of Petroleum Trading Company“Wholesale prices fell very strongly in December. They are now winning back this fall a little, because the external news background has improved. Oil prices have risen for seven days in a row as agreements between China and America seem more achievable. However, the margins of gas stations are now sufficient, and it suggests that, in principle, all market participants and independent oil companies will not have a problem complying with these agreements at current wholesale price levels. There is no such pressure from wholesale prices on retail prices now, so we don’t see any prerequisites for price increases in the near future. A new reverse excise tax mechanism began to operate in January. As soon as it actually starts working, and not just nominally, that is, when factories start receiving excise tax refunds... there are no prerequisites for growth in the near future.”

On the first trading day of this year at the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange, gasoline AI-92 rises in price by about 3%, AI-95 - by 5%. These were the trading indicators at 13:00 Moscow time. According to trading participants, such dynamics in gasoline prices is typical for the beginning of the year and is explained by pent-up demand.

The measures are being implemented by the government. We are talking about adjusting the parameters of the so-called “tax maneuver” for oil companies, which should allow them to receive more benefits in 2019 and thereby not increase prices.

The corresponding bill, on behalf of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, was jointly developed in several ministries, including the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Energy. As the site learned from sources in departments, the document was submitted to the government for consideration - its approval will become a pure formality. But this does not mean that they will remain the same.

Raw materials - to Russia, prices are lower

Industry participants have been waiting for such a decision since the government fixed gasoline prices at the May level after more than 10 percent growth in a month. This decision was preceded by numerous complaints from motorists that were received by President Vladimir Putin during the next “Direct Line”. It was obvious that the price freeze would not last forever and that subsidies to the oil refining industry alone, for which 1 trillion rubles were allocated in 2017 alone, could not solve the problem. The logical solution was to carry out a “tax maneuver”.

Initially, as the head of the analytical center of the Independent Fuel Union, Grigory Bazhenov, clarified in a conversation with the site, the maneuver involved zeroing out the export duty on oil and petroleum products by 2024, as well as increasing the tax on mineral extraction and simultaneous. But against the backdrop of fuel prices continuing to rise, the government decided to make concessions and also reduce the budget’s dependence on external conditions.

According to the text of the document, the innovation involves reducing the base price of motor fuel from 56 thousand rubles. per ton up to 50.4 thousand rubles. per ton for gasoline, as well as from 50 thousand rubles. per ton up to 45 thousand rubles. per ton for diesel fuel. To receive subsidies, companies must not allow the wholesale price to deviate from the “baseline values” by more than 10%.

To prevent the overwhelming amount of Russian raw materials from being exported, the document suggests that producers should send at least 17.5% of all oil produced exclusively to Russian oil refineries. Separately, the government decided to support the Far Eastern Federal District - to prevent a deterioration in the region’s oil product supply, it developed its own compensation mechanism.

According to Bazhenov, the maneuver is carried out only in the interests of the budget and provides for “not the most successful levers for boosting the sector’s economy - damping mechanisms.” As for the retail sector, one should not expect a noticeable positive impact on it, a representative of the Independent Fuel Union is sure.

“Dampers are being introduced so as not to destroy the profitability of oil refining due to an increase in excise tax,” the expert explained. “According to the authors’ idea, they will simultaneously fill the budget through excise taxes, and, through subsidies and compensation, will provide the refinery with the opportunity to earn money. At the same time, no thought was given to the impact on the retail sector. Therefore, the current parameters of the maneuver will not have any positive impact on the independent fuel retail sector. Margins will continue to be near zero, independent players will continue to suffer losses and leave the market. And when the supply of a product decreases, its price inevitably rises.”

Why will fuel prices still go up?

The experts interviewed believe that there are more than enough prerequisites for a further increase in fuel prices. These include an increase in excise tax, an increase in the VAT rate, as well as a gradual transition to winter diesel fuel, which is more expensive.

This opinion, in particular, is shared by the Independent Fuel Union, where they drew attention to the fact that diesel has already begun to rise in price. “Winter diesel fuel is sold on the wholesale exchange at 46.7 rubles/liter, AI-92 - 41.7 rubles/liter, and AI-95 - 45.5 rubles/liter,” said a representative of the union. — Retail and wholesale prices are approximately at the same level. At the same time, a number of retail chains have already increased prices for diesel fuel to 50 rubles/liter (for example, PTK and Shell). If prices are not raised, independent players will suffer losses and leave the market. Accordingly, supply compression will begin, which in turn will push prices up even more. This problem cannot be solved by tax maneuver. Therefore, we expect another price jump by the end of the year. Most likely, it will be less than May, but plus 2-3 rubles is a completely realistic scenario.”

First of all, the rise in price will affect diesel fuel, says Oleg Ashikhmin, president of the Oil Club. “There are already problems with summer diesel fuel, and from October the whole country will begin to switch to winter diesel fuel, which costs 5 thousand rubles per ton more on the stock exchange. That is, independent gas stations are already operating at a loss, and in winter they will lose even more if they do not raise prices. To prevent this, we need to fill the market with petroleum products. But it is still not profitable for oil companies to supply them to the domestic market - they can earn much more by exporting. Maintaining excise taxes at the current level would help reduce prices on the wholesale market. So, they want to compensate oil companies for their costs, but why, if you can simply not raise excise taxes,” the expert explained.

The tax maneuver will only partially contain prices, predicts Ilya Zharsky, managing partner of the Veta expert group. He is convinced that the price of a liter of 95-grade gasoline will rise to 47.5 rubles by the end of the year, and in the second quarter of 2019 will exceed 50 rubles per liter.

“The increase still happens because the gasoline market is controlled by large refineries, which can raise prices at the same time, without agreement: they have been accustomed to doing this for years,” Zharsky said on the website. — The tax maneuver in its current version will be beneficial to companies with a high depth of oil refining, and is indifferent to companies with a low depth of oil refining. Therefore, theoretically, it will stimulate investment in oil refining - but this is a very long trend, for decades. Targeted activity of the FAS in this matter could be more effective than a tax maneuver.”

The implementation of the tax maneuver can lead to the implementation of two possible scenarios, says Sergei Zvenigorodsky, an expert at SOLID Management Management Company. The first is an increase in domestic retail fuel prices to European levels, that is, to 65-75 rubles per liter within one and a half to two years after the completion of the tax maneuver. The second is an adjustment to the current theoretical model and “the return of the firm but generous hand of the state to the market.”

“In any case, we expect a rise in prices, it all depends on how fast and strong it will be. Most likely, by the beginning of next year the price freeze will come to an end, and the price per liter of AI-95 will creep up, to 48-49 rubles by the second quarter,” the expert suggested.

The FAS did not respond to the website’s request regarding the impact of the measures taken on retail fuel prices by the time of publication.

Russia is the richest country in the world in natural resources. We produce ferrous, non-ferrous, semi-precious and precious metals, gas and oil. It is logical to assume that a country with such a supply of natural resources should prosper. And the standard of living of the population should be high. This, unfortunately, is not the case.

We are not the UAE or Qatar, where the government wisely uses revenues from the oil and gas industry. Moreover, despite the fact that the country is one of the largest oil exporters, gasoline is very expensive. It is unlikely that experienced motorists can remember the moment when gasoline and other fuels became cheaper. It only becomes more expensive even when oil prices on the world market fall. It’s strange and illogical considering that we have a lot of oil in our country. However, gasoline is only getting more expensive. The opinions of most experts on this issue agree. It's time to figure out why gasoline prices are rising.

“When the government actively begins to regulate the fuel market, this eventually leads to an increase in fuel prices, which is typical during periods of economic crises. This happened in 1996, 2000, 2008. A similar situation was observed in 2014, when the ruble exchange rate fell sharply against the euro and dollar. The government's intentions are good and are aimed at preventing gasoline shortages on the market. And they succeeded.

But, over time, when the situation became less aggravated, the government forgot to return to the natural market mechanism. This is still happening now. In 2015, the government artificially kept gasoline prices at a certain level so that it would not rise sharply.

As a result, there was a period when the cost of fuel in Russia was the lowest in Europe. It would seem that this is good. Low gasoline prices have made the domestic market uninteresting for foreign fuel suppliers. Not all of the fuel used in our country is produced in Russia. It is exported from Finland, Belarus for the regions of the Northwestern Okrug, and from some Asian countries. Due to low, unattractive prices, the above countries stopped supplying it to the domestic market.

Over time, this led to a shortage that continues today. There is little supply on the market, but great demand. Fuel consumption has increased in recent years. Against this background, the price has increased."

This is how Rustam Tankaev, a member of the Committee of the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry on Energy Strategy and Development of the Fuel and Energy Complex, answered why gasoline is expensive in Russia.

Exports and high taxes are to blame for everything

“At the beginning of 2018, the mineral extraction tax and fuel excise tax increased. Despite the fact that the government is considering reducing the excise tax by a few percent, this will not improve the situation. After all, from the beginning of next year, VAT will increase by 2%, so reducing the excise tax will not make a difference. Taxes are definitely high. The reason for their increase is the budget deficit. The government can be understood on the one hand, but the consequences of such decisions have a negative impact on the overall economic situation.

Export is another reason. Little gasoline is produced on the Russian market. It is much more profitable for oil companies to sell black gold abroad because they quickly receive their profits without additional headaches. For every ton of AI-92 fuel sent abroad, they receive an additional 5,990 rubles. This is the main motive of exporters."

This is how Evgeny Arkusha, president of the Moscow Fuel Association and the Russian Fuel Union, will answer the question of why gasoline prices are rising.

There will be no sudden jumps

“There shouldn’t be any sharp jumps in gasoline prices. The increase in cost is due to increased excise taxes and inflation. According to preliminary forecasts, the rise in prices for gasoline and other fuels by the end of the year will be at the level of inflation.”

This is what Alexander Novak, the Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation, will answer when asked whether gasoline will become more expensive.

This was a one-time price hike

“We can’t expect any jumps in the near future. Why did gasoline begin to rise at the beginning of this year? In the spring of 2018, the rise in prices was due to a number of factors.

Finally, oil began to rise in price and reached $80 per barrel, setting a record for the last 3 years. Against this background, domestic oil producing companies began to actively export it in order to increase dollar profits, leaving very little fuel for the domestic gasoline market, which contributed to the emergence of a shortage.

At the same time, in the spring, the demand for fuel increases sharply, because transport operations become more active, people begin to use their personal cars more, go to their dachas, to the sea, and other trips. Demand increased, but there was not much supply, and excise taxes and taxes increased. Manufacturers and retailers took advantage of this opportunity to increase the price of goods. However, the FAS quickly became interested in this.

Now the situation has stabilized and such sharp jumps are not expected until the end of the year. It was planned to raise excise taxes again in July. The government did not do this in order to prevent prices from rising even further. It was decided to reduce them by 3000 per ton of gasoline."

Alexander Prosviryakov, investment banker

Blame exports and lack of proper government control

“There needs to be stronger government oversight. It is more profitable to sell oil than to leave it on the domestic market for a consumer who is not very solvent. Last year, price growth on the domestic market amounted to 14.4%. This is several times higher than the inflation rate.

There are high risks that by the end of this year the cost of gasoline will be 56 rubles. This will lead to a sharp jump in prices for products and services, which cannot be allowed in an unstable economic situation when the solvency of citizens has decreased. The government itself is making sure that a larger volume of produced oil is exported, without being particularly interested in how things are going on in the domestic market.

First, it is necessary to saturate the domestic market with petroleum products, making them accessible and of high quality, even if it is necessary to take tough measures against producing companies. This could be the introduction of excise taxes on exported oil and an increase in existing export duties."

Boris Titov, the business ombudsman, openly stated that the price of gasoline is rising and it cannot be stopped!

The government will lose a significant source of income

“Why is gasoline becoming more expensive in Russia? Our state is heavily dependent on the natural oil and gas industry, because most of the revenue comes from the sale of these resources. The natural resource extraction tax has been increased several times in recent years, as have excise taxes on fuel. There is a budget deficit.

Sanctions, a sharp weakening of the ruble exchange rate and the resulting economic crisis, tightening tax policy towards business only aggravated the situation. Budget revenues are declining. And the government cannot lose its main source - the oil and gas industry. Therefore, cutting taxes now is akin to death for the budget. It is taxes that influence the pricing of gasoline. This is the reason for the rise in prices. 75% of the cost of gasoline is taxes, which the manufacturer pays to the budget."

Dmitry Makhonin, head of the control department of the fuel and energy complex of the Federal Antimonopoly Service

Watch the video about how Putin explained why gasoline prices are rising in Russia:

From 2019, excise taxes on fuel in Russia will be increased by 1.5 times. The cost of gasoline may jump by 15%.

The Accounts Chamber of Russia has predicted a sharp jump in gasoline prices from 2019 - this could happen due to an increase in the fuel excise tax. It is planned to increase excise taxes by 1.5 times, according to the final conclusion of the Accounts Chamber based on the results of consideration of the country’s draft budget for 2019. It is expected that this will lead to an increase in the cost of gasoline and will require containment measures, the TV channel reports, citing a leading expert of the Union of Oil and Gas Industrialists Rustam Tankaev said that prices for gasoline and diesel fuel will “jump” by as much as 15% .

At the same time, in an interview with RBC, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak denied a possible increase in gasoline prices at gas stations. The government, he said, will use the entire range of tools to prevent this from happening.

Portal website I turned to experts for clarification - should we still expect gasoline prices to soar?

“Have you increased the excise tax? Gasoline will rise!

“Everything is created so that there is growth. It will be difficult to contain. Only systemic measures are needed. In manual mode, as is happening now, the situation cannot be saved. All grounds for growth have been created. Forecasts in our country are a thankless task. I would argue from the position of adequate profitability. As the excise tax increases, the cost of a liter of gasoline increases. This is approximately 4 rubles. The process of zeroing out export duties has begun, which means that trade on exports will be more profitable than on the domestic market. This gap will inevitably entail the desire of oil companies to balance the situation and direct maximum flows to the external market, or to raise the domestic price. It is advisable to add another 6 rubles to four rubles - this is the money that will allow fuel companies - not network operators, but small retailers - to receive a standard margin of 15%. We are not talking about excess profits, but only about income that will make it possible not to destroy the infrastructure and small fuel companies,”

– said the site Pavel Bazhenov, President of the Independent Fuel Union.

“You travel a lot, you pay a lot”

“If we mean that the transport tax will be abolished and the lost revenue will be “hardwired” into the price of gasoline, then it will be much fairer and fairer. In this regard, there is a positive: “If you travel a lot, you pay a lot; if you travel a little, you pay little.” We do not have the most expensive gasoline in the world: in Turkey they pay 2.4 euros per liter of gasoline. In Europe - 1.6-1.8 euros. Compared to them, we are in chocolate. Another thing is how much gasoline will rise in price. Let's do the math: depending on the region, we pay a transport tax per year for a car with an engine with a power of 150-200 hp. approximately 6 thousand rubles. Divide them by 12 months, we get 500 rubles. If we consider that the average car owner fills up once a week, it turns out that we pay about 120 rubles a week. If we remove the transport tax, will the cost of gasoline rise in proportion to this arithmetic? I'm afraid not. In this case, everything goes to the following: in Europe, engines with a volume of 1.2-1.4 liters with turbines are common. And for us, a sign of coolness is a car with a volume of 3.5–4 liters, which “eats” 20 or more liters of gasoline per 100 km. From a common sense point of view, this is unacceptable. Six plus or minus a liter is the average fuel consumption in the city. This is how much gasoline a modern car should consume so that we don’t have to squeal about how expensive it has become to drive. The hardest thing will be for industrial enterprises - those for harvesting, sowing, truckers, taxi drivers, carriers and other vehicles that consume disproportionately more fuel,”

Added Alexander Dobin, auto journalist, auto expert.

“Prices will not rise sharply”

“The State Duma has consistently rejected proposals to abolish the transport tax. Therefore, I cannot say anything about this - this is the competence of the deputies, who do not want to examine this issue yet. As for the increase in excise taxes, this will lead to an increase in the cost of gasoline. As far as I know, the president personally took control of gasoline prices. In the summer, a command was given to develop a compensation mechanism so that prices would not increase sharply, and such mechanisms were developed. And now they must be ready. Our consumers will not be able to withstand a sharp rise in gasoline prices, this is fraught with social consequences, and none of the officials needs this - so I do not expect prices to skyrocket,”

Assured by an auto expert Igor Morzharetto.