“There will be no war, the crisis is guaranteed. Will a new global economic crisis break out and what will be its consequences?

For our compatriots, the word “crisis” has long become almost familiar. We hear it quite often in the news - after all economic crisis in Russia it happens even more often than once a decade (if we take the period after the collapse of the Soviet Union).

However, not everyone knows exactly what the causes of the economic crisis in Russia are and how this threatens the ordinary citizen.and when it will end.IQReview I have collected up-to-date information and answers to similar questions in one place.

What is an economic crisis and what are its symptoms?

To summarize: an economic crisis is a complex of events during which a significant and sharp drop in production.

T This situation has a number of signs, including:

Rising unemployment rate.

Significant depreciation of the national currency.

Imbalance of supply and demand in various markets for goods and services.

Decrease in the solvency of citizens.

Decrease in GDP (or cessation of growth - if before this GDP was steadily increasing).

Decrease in the pace and volume of production in various industrial sectors.

Outflow of foreign capital.

Reducing the cost of raw materials.

The listed “symptoms” are only the main ones - in fact, the list of problems in the economy is much longer. They usually manifest themselves sharply, comprehensively (several points at once), and in a significant volume. For example, if the unemployment rate in the country increases by 5% over a year, then this is bad, but far from a crisis. But if in six months the national currency has depreciated by 30%, GDP has fallen, several thousand enterprises have gone bankrupt, and performance in various sectors of the economy has fallen - this is already a crisis.

Classification of crisis situations

Since a crisis is a large-scale phenomenon, it can be divided into various categories based on a number of characteristics:

Partial or sectoral. It is characterized by the fact that it covers a separate sector of the economy without leading to significant problems in other areas.

Cyclical. Characterized by the fact thatoccurs regularly (repeated at approximately equal time intervals). Typically, its causes are the obsolescence of industrial equipment and technologies, which leads to higher prices for products. To overcome such problems, a reorganization of the production structure is required.

Intermediate. It is similar to cyclical, but differs in that problems do not appear so acutely and sharply. Also, the intermediate crisis is not regular - it does not repeat itself at approximately equal time intervals.

Crisis situations can also be divided by localization. They can occur in a single region, in a single country, several countries (neighboring), or in a large number of countries. The global economic crisis is the last option, when an economic decline is observed in several major countries at the same time.

Modern classification of economics

According to the NBER classification (National Bureau of Economic Research, USA), the state of the modern economy consists of only 4 phases:

Economic cycle

Peak (when the economic situation is at its most comfortable level).

Recession (when stability is disrupted and the economy begins to steadily deteriorate).

Bottom (lowest point of decline).

Revival (overcoming a low point, followed by a way out of a crisis situation).

N A little history: when have serious economic crises ever occurred?

To confirm the words that the global economic crisis is a regular phenomenon, here is a list of the largest economic collapses:

1900-1903. The crisis began suddenly in most European countries, a little later - and in the USA. This economic crisis in Russia (in those years - still Russian Empire) began even earlier - in 1899. Moreover, in Russia it developed into a protracted depression, which lasted about a decade - until 1909.

1914-1922, First World War. The crisis erupted due to military action that stopped or seriously affected the operations of thousands of companies in participating countries. The problems began even before the outbreak of hostilities - when the situation began to heat up and panic began in the financial markets.

“Price Scissors”, 1923. The collapse that affected the economy of the “young” USSR. It arose due to the lack of balance between the prices of industrial and agricultural goods.

"The Great Depression", 1929-1939. It had the strongest impact on the USA and Canada, to a lesser extent on France and Germany, and was also felt in other developed countries. The reasons for this collapse have not been precisely established; there are several versions. It broke out after the stock market crash in the United States, on Wall Street (this is where the expression “Black Monday” came from).

1939-1945, World War II. Naturally, such large-scale military actions led to the decline of the economies of all participating countries and affected other states.

Oil crisis (or oil embargo), 1973. Began due to the refusal of a number of countries (Arab states that are members of OAPEC, Egypt, Syria) to supply oil to Japan, the USA, the Netherlands, Canada, and the UK. The main objective of this action was to put pressure on these countries for supporting Israel in the military conflict against Syria and Egypt. This economic crisis in Russia (USSR at that time) did not bring negative consequences. On the contrary: oil supplies from the Union have increased significantly, and its cost in 1 year has increased from $3 to $12 per barrel.

The collapse of the USSR, the end of the 80s and the beginning of the 90s. The situation that led to the collapse of the Union developed under the pressure of several factors: sanctions from the West, decreased oil prices, lack of sufficient quantities of consumer goods, high level unemployment, military operations in Afghanistan, general dissatisfaction with the ruling elite. The collapse had a strong impact on the countries of the Union, and to a lesser extent on neighboring states (due to the deterioration or complete cessation of cooperation).

Russian crisis, 1994. After the collapse of the Union, the economic situation of the Russian Federation was in a deplorable state, and from 1991 to 1994 the situation steadily worsened. The causes of the problems were errors in the privatization of state property, loss of economic ties, outdated technologies and equipment in production.

Russian default, 1998. Developed due to the inability to pay government debts. The precondition was the crisis in Asia, a sharp drop in oil prices and a sharp rise in the dollar exchange rate against the ruble (from 6 rubles to 21 rubles in just less than a month). The way out of the situation was protracted and difficult, and lasted for several years (it took different periods for different areas of the economy).

Asian financial crisis, 1997-1998 (one of the reasons for the Russian default). To one degree or another, it affected all states of the planet. It developed due to the very rapid growth of the economies of Asian countries, which is why they began to experience a massive influx of foreign capital. As a consequence, this led to “overheating,” sharp fluctuations in the financial and real estate markets, and subsequently to their destabilization and decline.

2008-2011. The scale and consequences of the economic crisis are comparable to the Great Depression. The collapse developed sharply in the United States, starting with the financial crisis. Having spread to the eurozone, it lasted even longer - until 2013. The crisis had little impact on the Russian segment, and its main consequences were overcome back in 2010.

Current crisis (since 2014). It was reflected in many countries by a sharp decline in the cost of oil. Sanctions that have disrupted economic relations between Western countries and the Russian Federation also have an impact.

Economic situation in Russia: a brief history of the current crisis

Since the last major crisis for Russia has not yet ended, we should dwell on it in more detail.

One of the first reasons for its development was the “Ukrainian events”, during which the Crimean peninsula passed from Ukraine to Russia. Also Russian Federation Since the first half of 2014, it has been regularly accused of sending troops into the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine. There is still no evidence of these accusations, but they still continue to be voiced.

To put pressure on the “aggressor,” Western countries (the United States and a number of European countries) introduced sanctions against the Russian Federation. Restrictions affected the industrial and financial sectors, which led to a sharp deterioration in the situation due to the fact that a number of companies lost the opportunity to receive “cheap” loans abroad and buy foreign equipment (raw materials, technologies).

At the same time, oil prices began to decline rapidly. From 2012 to mid-2014 they were in the range of $100-115 per barrel, and already in December 2014 they reached $56.5 (the lowest point since 2009). After this, the price of oil did not stabilize, but fluctuated regularly, and when it fell, it reached $27.5 per barrel (for the first time since 2003).

Due to the fact that the Russian economy was largely dependent on oil exports, this quickly led to a deterioration in the economy in all its sectors (in addition to the deterioration that arose due to sanctions).

Now (at the beginning of 2017) the country from the economic crisis gradually comes out. The price of oil has stabilized and has been in the 50-57 range since the fall of 2016$ per barrel. Along with the cost of raw materials, the national currency has also stabilized - about 55-60 rubles per dollar.

How do such problems threaten the average citizen?

The crisis is not only felt by companies in various sectors of the economy. It has no less influence on the ordinary citizen. An unfavorable situation leads to the following consequences:

Wages decrease (or slow down, or their growth stops).

Purchasing power decreases (due to rising prices, decreasing wages, and the desire to save).

We have to give up the usual range of products and entertainment.

Opportunities for receiving medical care, education.

Jobs are being cut (this can both lead to dismissal if a person has a job, and makes it more difficult for those who are looking for one).

The selection of goods in stores is decreasing (not always, not critically, and not in all areas).

Add to this other - intangible - problems. For a population whose standard of living is falling, their mood worsens—for every citizen individually. If the situation drags on, social tension may increase: trust in the government decreases, citizens more actively express their dissatisfaction (online, at rallies).

Causes of the crisis

There are many theories and explanations of the causes of crises, but one of the most common is the Marxist version. Proposed by Karl Marx (1st volume of Capital, 1867), it quite accurately describes the essence of problematic situations in the economy. Karl Marx noted that until the end of the 18th century (before the Industrial Revolution, when production began to rapidly develop in many countries), there were no regular cycles of booms and busts in the economy.

According to this theory, crisis is an integral part of the capitalist economy. No matter how stable, reliable and balanced the economic system of the state is, crisis situations still happened in it, are happening and will continue to happen. They can be “tamed,” their impact can be weakened, and they can be made more rare, but they cannot be completely eliminated.

According to the author, this is explained by the fact that any capitalist (owner of an enterprise) strives to increase profits. To do this, you need to sell as many goods as possible at the lowest cost of production. That is, the volume of production is reached to the maximum.

However, no one controls the balance between the total cost of goods produced and real salaries population (which always receives less than it produces - otherwise the capitalist would not make a profit). As a result, over time, this leads to the production owner’s profit falling.

To avoid this, he begins to take active actions, which are aimed either at increasing the volume of goods or at further reducing production costs. When this does not help, reductions begin at enterprises until they go bankrupt. As a result, unemployment is growing, and competitors are trying to take over the vacated market space, who will then face the same problems.

To summarize, every new economic crisis arises due to a lack of balance between the production and consumption of goods and services.

If we evaluate more narrowly, then among the causes of problems we can highlight:

Uncontrolled growth of inflation.

Focus on one sector of the economy and insufficient attention to other areas.

Political instability.

Errors in management.

Obsolescence of production.

The production of uncompetitive products that are inferior to imported goods, and at the same time cost no less (or not much less) than them.

Ways out of the crisis

TO Each crisis situation is individual, and therefore there is no single “recipe” for overcoming it. However, we can summarize several basic steps that the authorities need to take to solve the problem:

Diversification of budget funds: creating the maximum number of ways to generate income. In this case, due to a fall in production in one industry (as in oil prices now in Russia), the economy as a whole will suffer less.

Creation of jobs - to increase employment of the population. This is useful for the budget because more funds will come in in the form of taxes, and, in addition, the population will spend more, stimulating production. To create jobs, it is necessary to maintain a conducive environment for doing business.

Containing inflation.

Financial control: exchange rate, interest rate.

Informing the population and enterprises: about the current situation, forecasts and prospects, recommendations for overcoming problems.

Updating the industrial sector: equipment, technologies.

Support for key sectors of the economy, if necessary - adjustment of budget distribution (reducing costs for less important sectors and increasing costs for more important ones).

On the development and causes of financial crises (video)

Analysis of the American market is the daily practice of experts from around the world working in private financial business structures, as well as in government agencies. What do analysts' assessments from different countries of the world agree on at the beginning of 2008? First of all, this is the beginning of the recession and the exhaustion of “growth points” in the real US economy. On a global scale, this is a manifestation of the “limits to growth.”

People began to actively write about the limits of growth back in 2001. “A new Great Depression is inevitable. The global market is approaching the limits of its growth, this has already been shown by the Pacific crisis,” Gazeta.ru noted after September 11, 2001. The world media has constantly emphasized that global GDP growth in 2001 is the lowest level of global economic growth over the past 20 years. Analysts recorded a decrease in business activity simultaneously in three of the world's largest markets - the USA, Japan and the UK. At the beginning of 2008, the topic of growth limits was discussed even more intensely.

It is also necessary to note such an important sign as the steady growth of US external debt: “The growing American debt is a very unpleasant trend that depreciates the foreign exchange reserves of other countries and forces them to maintain the US budget deficit,” says E. Yasin. This assessment captures the aspect of interconnectedness between the state of the US economy and the economies of most countries in the world.

Another important sign of the approaching crisis is the complete exit of the global financial and economic sphere from the control of politicians. In 2000, G. Schröder said at the conference “Modern Management in the 21st Century”: “We do not want market dominance over politics, but strive for a balance of power on a national and international scale... We will take care of the return of the political component, especially in the aspect of globalization and problems associated with it" (Deutschland, No. 4, 2000). Alas, in the first years of the new millennium, the influence of political institutions on the process of globalization has been practically lost.

Moreover, the process of “disappearance” of the influence of key players in the global market has begun. OPEC already has virtually no influence on the world price of oil, and the hour is not far off when the remaining influence on the global monetary and financial system of the Fed will be exhausted. In 2007, D. Soros argued in one of his interviews that the decline in the American economy would be severe and unexpected. He emphasized that it would be difficult for both the European Union and most countries of the world. Soros also suggested that Southeast Asia would be the “weak link.”

The global financial crisis is closely related to key sectors of the economy, and when it occurs, the main pressure falls on the production of various goods and services. The financial crisis of 2008 was distinguished by both depth and scope - it, perhaps, for the first time since the Great Depression, gripped the entire world. The “trigger” that set the crisis mechanism in motion was problems in the US mortgage market. However, there are more fundamental reasons behind the crisis, including macroeconomic, microeconomic and institutional. The leading macroeconomic reason turned out to be excess liquidity in the US economy, which, in turn, was determined by many factors, including:

General decline in confidence in emerging market countries since the 1997-1998 crisis;

Investing in American securities by countries accumulating foreign exchange reserves (China) and oil funds (Gulf countries);

The low interest rate policy pursued by the Federal Reserve in 2001-2003 in an attempt to prevent a cyclical downturn in the US economy.

Under the influence of excess liquidity, the process of formation of market bubbles—distorted, inflated valuations of various types of assets—intensified. In certain periods, such bubbles formed in the real estate, stock and commodity markets, which became an important part of the crisis mechanism. According to cross-country studies covering long periods of time, credit expansion is one of the typical conditions of financial crises. Thus, the risks of a crisis developing as a result of a weakening of monetary policy, which materialized in 2008, are not an exception, but a general rule.

2.1 Causes of the global financial crisis of 2008

An economic crisis is an imbalance of supply and demand within a country for goods and services. The global economic crisis is the spread of such imbalances to most of the world economy.

The crisis manifests itself:

in an absolute drop in production;

in underutilization of production capacities;

in rising unemployment;

in violations in the monetary, foreign exchange and credit and financial spheres

A sociological survey was conducted in the USA among the population, which asked the question: “What do you see as signs of the global financial crisis?” The respondents' answers are presented in Figure 1:

Rice. 2. Signs of the global financial crisis

We can conclude that a person is more interested in those indicators that affect his well-being.

All socio-economic processes are interconnected. The economy of one country in the era of globalized commodity-market relations cannot do without the participation of another. That is why, as soon as the crisis manifested itself in one of the countries (especially one of the world’s leading economies), a chain reaction of its manifestation in others began. It is worth noting that it is the country’s strong economic situation that causes an equally strong manifestation of the crisis. Advancement, wealth, striving forward, powerful development with inadequate social organization give more intense crisis results. This fully applies to the United States, which today occupies a leading position in the world economy.

The main reason for the global economic crisis is the overproduction of the main world currency - the US dollar and the cheapness of mortgages in the US, fueled by the annual increase in real estate prices, in the period from 2001 to 2005 led to an unprecedented demand for housing, including that which the population planned use as short-term investment. Requirements for borrowers were reduced, since all banks were confident that in the event of loan default, the property could be seized and sold at great profit. In addition, huge amounts of money from insurance companies were circulating in this area, providing insurance to both borrowers and banks in the event of loan default.

The crisis began with panic in Western stock markets and a decline in oil prices. The first led to the outflow of Western capital from the Russian market and a decrease in the value of shares, the second led to a decrease in the value of shares directly. As a result, cheap money immediately became scarce. If we take into account that the decrease in the value of shares registered as collateral for loans to Western banks entailed a number of payment requirements, then there was not enough money. This is the same liquidity crisis - banking assets are simply not enough to operate effectively. The result is the winding down of lending programs for households and businesses, increasing interest rates and other measures to retain assets.

The impetus for the crisis was the collapse of the US mortgage system. The number of home sales began to fall and the issuance of loans increased. October 2005 saw significant inflationary pressures, with the average cost of funds raised for non-prime lenders rising by 2.25 percentage points over 40 days. Already in November 2005 - creditors increased interest rates for borrowers, because loans with low interest rates have become uninteresting for investors. Against the backdrop of the emerging crisis, the US housing market is reassessing the ability of borrowers to service non-standard loans and lending conditions are tightening.

Rice. 3. The beginning of the recession in the US economy - 2007

Gradually, the financial crisis in the United States began to spread throughout the world. American corporations have begun urgently selling assets and withdrawing money from other countries.

Events in the US economy have had a negative impact on stock markets in developed and developing countries. Figure 2 shows the dynamics in 2007-2008. one of the main American stock indexes S&P 500 and the stock index for emerging markets MSCI EM, developed by Morgan Stanley (the data in the figure does not reflect the monthly dynamics of the indices).

Figure 4. US and emerging market stock indices

In 2007, stock markets in developing countries grew at a faster pace than developed countries, driven by portfolio investments from the world's leading economies. In 2008, the massive influx of funds from abroad into developing markets ceased, and the dynamics of the stock index for developing countries practically repeats the dynamics of the leading American stock index. During 2008, the S&P 500 index fell by almost 40%, and the MSCI EM index fell by more than 50%.

One of the reasons for the current global financial crisis is the discrepancy between the principles of the world monetary system and the conditions of reproduction and the new configuration of forces in the world economy. Historically, the dollarization of the world economy has occurred and another imbalance has clearly emerged - the overproduction of the main world currency - the US dollar. Already from the mid-70s, during the transition from the Bretton Woods to the Jamaican currency system and with the abolition of the dollar's link to the gold content, dollars began to be printed by the Federal Reserve for the whole world (except the USA!) in unlimited quantities and there was no control over the issue of the American currency neither the countries of the world nor the US government have. The expansion of paper money is losing touch with the needs of the circulation of real goods and services. From 1971 to 2008, the volume of dollar supply in the world increased tenfold, many times exceeding the real volume of goods and services. This situation is extremely beneficial for the United States, which has been living largely at the expense of the rest of the world for almost 40 years.

According to some economists, with a GDP of 10 trillion. dollars (20% of world GDP), the USA consumes 40% of world GDP, emitting harmful waste into the atmosphere and the environment in the same amount. It is quite obvious who pays the difference. This is the rest of the world, which, in exchange for natural resources, goods produced in different countries that required labor, resources, and capital, receives unsecured pieces of paper called dollars. This is reminiscent of the exchange between the conquerors of the American continent and the aborigines, when Manhattan was bought for candy wrappers and beads worth $24, each square millimeter of which costs more today. Subsequently, dollars earned from the export of natural resources, goods and services by other countries form temporarily free financial resources of private entrepreneurs and states (in the form of gold and foreign exchange reserves and state stabilization funds, known as sovereign wealth funds - SWF), which are used to purchase American shares and bonds. And then, in the process of financial turmoil, US debt obligations become cheaper and, as the practice of the 2000s shows, the rest of the world is financing the US 5-7 trillion free of charge. dollars.

The global financial and economic crisis of 208, on the one hand, had the following reasons:

out-of-control growth of securities;

distribution of obviously irrevocable mortgage loans;

multi-level “risk repackaging” that insured investors’ risks.

On the other hand, the reasons were:

the greed of the American economy (and, accordingly, the world economy as a whole) - the increasing pumping of the “speculative financial bubble”;

the government's wrong course of action in the economy;

orientation of humanity towards technological progress, in the absence of orientation towards self-development (intellectual, spiritual, etc.)

From the above, we can draw conclusions about the causes of the global financial crisis of 2008 more specifically:

The main reason for the global economic crisis is the overproduction of the main world currency - the US dollar. It was in 1971, when the dollar’s ​​link to the gold content provided by the US gold reserves was abolished, that dollars began to be printed in unlimited quantities. The purchasing power of the dollar was ensured not only by the US GDP (as happens in every normal country), but also by the GDP of countries around the world. Everything would be fine, but those states whose economies began to provide the strength of the dollar have never had and do not have control over the volume of dollar emission. The US government really does not have this control. Only the US Federal Reserve has this right.

The US Federal Reserve System (in other words, the US Central Bank) is a private organization owned by 20 private US banks. This is their main business - printing world money. To achieve this, the current owners of the Fed have spent a lot of time - decades, or rather centuries, and efforts - here the 1st and 2nd World Wars and the Bretton Woods agreements of 1944, etc. and, of course, the very creation of the Federal Reserve System in 1907. Thus, a group of individuals finally received the right to issue dollars into circulation, determine the volume, timing of issue, etc. From 1971 to 2008, the volume of dollar supply in the world increased tenfold, exceeding many times the real volume of commodity supply in the world.

This state of affairs was exclusively beneficial, first of all, to the owners of the Federal Reserve System as a private organization, and secondly, to the United States itself as a state. And among the benefits of the United States is the opportunity in general since 1944, and especially since 1971, i.e. Over the past 37 years, living beyond one's means, i.e. largely at the expense of the rest of the world.

Since the US GDP is 20% of world GDP, and consumes 40%, then someone has to pay for it? Someone who really pays is the rest of the world, which gives America its goods in exchange for unsecured pieces of paper. At the same time, there is a huge redistribution of world wealth in favor of the United States.

The next reason, or rather a step into the abyss of the crisis, is the bursting of the unsecured mortgage bubble.

Another version is the theory of large cycles by N.D. Kondratieva. At some point, the economy opens up opportunities for intensive growth - improving technology, increasing the efficiency of using existing resources - and then, as a result of this process, opportunities open up for extensive growth, covering new markets and territories, while few people are interested in efficiency.

Then again extensive growth hits a wall, the frontier is mastered - and the intensive cycle begins. This is what we see today. A change in growth models means a change in business strategies, a 90-degree turn, which is almost always accompanied by large-scale crises. The extensive cycle began in the 1970s, the previous intensive cycle in the 1930s with that very great and terrible depression. And now, in fact, there is the same natural process of restructuring in an intensive way. The only question remains is the duration and intensity of this process.

Summarizing many views on the cause and nature of the crisis of 2008, we can state that the global financial and economic crisis is a multifactor process, formed under the influence of the cyclical nature of scientific and technological progress and the scientific and technological revolution, a combination of monetary factors, and the relationship between supply and demand at the macro level of the economy, as well as many other factors.

Indisputable, in our opinion, is the conclusion that as a result of the 2008 crisis, there was another large-scale redistribution of world wealth from countries affected by the crisis in favor of the United States due to the special role of the dollar in the world economy.

2.2 Fundamental problems of modern economic development

The economic crisis reflects acute tension in the socio-economic environment. Escalating political situations can also be signs of an impending crisis. Problems in politics always develop into problems in the economy, since all attention is focused on solving the former, while the latter remain in the background.

There are a number of key problems, the significance of which humanity felt especially acutely in the 20th century. and which will greatly influence the life of humanity in the 21st century.

The first of these problems is the growing gap between the world's richest and poorest countries (Figure 4):

Rice. 5. “Scissors of inequality” between residents of the richest countries in the world and the rest of the world’s population

Share in population Share in consumption

The richest inhabitants of the Earth The rest of the inhabitants of the Earth

The fact is that the population of the poorest countries is growing at a faster rate than the amount of gross domestic product they produce. Although the latter is growing even faster than in the most developed countries of the world (3.2 and 2.3% per year, respectively, during 1965-1987), the high birth rate negates all the results of production growth. As a result, according to the UN, if in 1960 the incomes of 20% of the world's citizens living in the richest countries exceeded the incomes of 20% of the citizens of the poorest countries by 30 times, then in 1989 this excess was already 59 times.

If we use the criteria once proposed by Ernst Engel (see “Pages of the Economic History of Mankind”), we can find that the poorest countries are about four centuries behind the richest in their development. Therefore, two civilizations actually coexist on the planet: one entered the 21st century, and the second only in the 17th century.

Such wealth inequality is becoming an increasingly serious cause of global instability. It is against the backdrop of poverty that those local military conflicts and wars that became the scourge of humanity at the end of the 20th century are born. and to eliminate which the largest countries in the world have to spend increasingly significant amounts of money, taking them away from their own economies. This problem is acutely felt in Russia, which also has to spend a lot of money to prevent wars from growing in its poor neighboring countries, otherwise these wars threaten to spread to its territory, and refugees have become a problem today.

In the 20th century The world's richest countries have tried to break the “vicious circle of underdevelopment” by lending money to the poorest countries for development programs. However, the results of such financial assistance programs have not been particularly significant. But developing countries, on top of everything else, found themselves in enormous debt to developed countries and international financial organizations - their creditors (Fig. 5).

Rice. 6. Dynamics of debt of developing countries

This problem most directly affects Russia. Our country inherited from the USSR the rights to almost 150 billion dollars of debt from a number of developing countries. Consequently, almost 11% of the total debt of these countries is debt to Russia (which itself owes the developed countries of the world more than $100 billion).

There are others possible reasons crises related to the general characteristics of the world economy.

First of all, it is necessary to point out the unprecedented rates of economic growth, which made it possible to increase global GDP by a quarter in five years (2000-2005).

A rapid rise inevitably accumulates systemic contradictions that are invisible behind the growth of prosperity. But even with the awareness of these contradictions, it is very difficult to intervene and correct anything: every time, in such boom situations, someone begins to voice caution or doubt the correctness of the course, confident voices begin to sound from all sides, insisting that “on this time everything will be different” (“this time it’s different”) Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Rinehart paid special attention to the fact that the trap for politicians “this time it’s different” dates back to the English default of the 14th century. And the crisis of 2008 can be fully considered innovative, since it is based on the emergence and rapid spread of financial innovations - new derivative instruments of the financial market.

It should be noted that at the present stage of the global development of capitalism, the financial sector functions independently, separated from production, from the real sector of the economy, where, in fact, money is earned and increased. The scale of such a “separation” of finances became critical by the beginning of 2008. Some experts believed that only 2-3% of financial transactions were related to material production, while the rest of the money circulated and gave “live” profits - in the service sector, in banks, insurance, etc. It is estimated that, on average, for every dollar measured in the value of the real sector of the world economy, financial sector was already circulating in beginning of XXI century about 50 dollars. Based on the foregoing, there is reason to assert that one of the sources of the global crisis was its separation from the “development” of the real economy, that is, from the economy for the production and sale of goods and services that satisfy the final needs of society.

Another fundamental cause of the crisis was the emerging global imbalance, which for a decade was considered as the basis for the sustainability of world growth. Today, this problem plays a critical role in the global financial system. In a narrow sense, the problem of global imbalances was discussed earlier in the context of the US trade deficit, accompanied by an increase in its external debt, and the directly opposite situation in China and a number of other countries in Southeast Asia. In a broad sense, the problem of global imbalances, affecting the economies of the United States, China, Japan, and the European Union, is manifested in the dynamics of exchange rates of major currencies and the value of foreign exchange reserves of different countries.

As a result, a regime emerged that was opposite to the model of globalization at the turn of the 19th-20th centuries. If, a hundred years ago, capital “moved” from developed countries to developing ones, now developing markets have become centers of savings, and the United States and other developed countries have become predominantly its consumers.

The unfolding crisis had another fundamental prerequisite. In recent decades, the objective trend of corporate consolidation and the resulting strengthening of the role of top managers has intensified in the global economy. As a result, an objective-subjective contradiction has developed when the interests of managers do not coincide with the interests of the owners. There has been a growing gap between the interests of owners and managers, whose behavior and motivation differ sharply. The target function of a business has also undergone a major transformation. The key benchmark for the development of corporations has become the growth of capitalization. It was this indicator that was of most interest to shareholders, and it is by this indicator that the effectiveness of management is assessed these days. Meanwhile, the desire for maximum capitalization comes into conflict with the real basis of socio-economic progress - increasing labor productivity. The growth of capitalization is, of course, connected with it, but only in the final analysis.

However, it is necessary to report to shareholders annually, and in order to obtain beautiful annual reports, maintaining the current growth of capitalization requires not the same thing as ensuring productivity growth. Good reporting requires mergers and acquisitions, since an increase in the volume of assets contributes to the growth of capitalization. And, of course, lagging enterprises should not be closed, since in the current period this leads to a decrease in capitalization. As a result, many large industrial corporations retain old, inefficient production facilities. Thus, the strengthening of the role of managing managers with their inherent interests that do not coincide with the interests of the owners, as well as the transformation of the target function of the business, led to an increase in the level of management risks and was one of the fundamental reasons for the current crisis. To this we must add the obvious failure of rating agencies that supply low-quality information products that lead to incorrect risk assessments of financial market participants. This situation also developed in Russian corporations at the beginning of the crisis.

Main conclusions:

Along with the problems of the functioning of individual markets for resources and goods, as well as the national economy as a whole, each country has to participate in one way or another in solving global economic problems. The first of these problems is the huge differences in living standards between the richest and poorest countries in the world. The growing disparity is coupled with the inability of the poorest countries to increase their GNP faster than their population grows. The huge difference in living standards has both economic and political consequences and leads to increased tension in the world. Therefore, in the 21st century. humanity will have to make enormous efforts to prevent a global economic catastrophe, fraught with the death of tens of millions of people from hunger and epidemics. It can only be prevented by accelerating scientific and technological progress, improving economic systems in poor countries of the world and reducing military spending with the subsequent use of saved funds for economic development.

Currently, the economic problems of mankind are aggravated by the fact that more and more resources have to be spent not on the development of production, but on saving environment. Otherwise, its pollution begins to slow down the growth of the gross national product and the effectiveness of investments in its increase decreases. However, only the richest countries in the world can afford large-scale programs to save the environment. The poorest countries cannot afford this. As a result, humanity was faced with the need to choose one of the economic policy options: either accelerating economic growth and increasing the material well-being of people while reducing the duration and quality of their lives due to environmental pollution; or improving the state of the environment and increasing people's life expectancy while slowing the growth rate of their material well-being. This is precisely the dilemma in the 21st century. will determine economic policy many countries and humanity as a whole.

The economic history of mankind is a series of endless financial crises. Brief periods of slow growth are followed by a sharp collapse, which is replaced by growth again. Over the past quarter of a millennium, there have been about forty crises, some of which changed the structure of the whole world. We have selected the largest of them. We bring you the history of global financial crises.

Most devastating economic crisis (1770–1780)

At the end of the 18th century, Great Britain was the center of the financial world. The main export product was cloth, which was produced by machine in numerous manufactories. It is noteworthy that in 1769 Parliament passed a law providing for the death penalty for destroying cars. Overproduction began, which led to a sharp decline in exports, which pulled down shipbuilding. The widespread spread of manufacturing in European countries - the Czech Republic, Germany, Spain, Poland, where slave labor was also used, led to the fact that English goods lost their competitiveness. This leads Britain to begin protecting its markets in the colonies and introduce customs duties. The import of goods into the UK is significantly reduced. Customs records indicate that between 1775 and 1783 imports fell from 15 million pounds to 10 million. The tonnage of ships leaving the ports in 1774 amounted to 864 thousand tons, in 1781 - 711 thousand tons. Up to half of the operating factories are going bankrupt.

The standard of living is declining, the colonies are demanding independence, and it comes to armed confrontation. Unrest begins in Ireland, the actions of the British lead to a terrible famine in India, about 30% of the population dies out in Bengal. In 1775-1783, the North American colonies separated and the United States appeared. The crisis is developing in France, the Netherlands, Austria, Germany, Spain and even Russia. This crisis can also be called the longest - it lasted for different times in different countries, historians estimate its duration at up to 25 years.

Favorite crisis of Karl Marx (1857–1858)

This global economic crisis , unlike the previous ones (see the table at the end of the article), began already in the USA due to speculation in shares of railway companies and due to the distribution of land for construction. But the prerequisites for the crisis were also in England - in addition to railway companies, they speculated in grain, in Europe - railway and shares of industrial enterprises. All this was aggravated by the uncontrolled growth of the money supply against the backdrop of the influx of gold and interbank transactions in both the United States and Europe.

In August 1857, the theft of the entire liquidity of the Ohio Life Insurance and Trust Company bank was revealed, after which it became clear that hundreds of enterprises could not make urgent payments. It has become almost impossible to get a loan. In mid-October, 50 banks closed in New York over two days. Almost the entire banking system of the country collapsed. By the end of September, 325 banks had ceased operations. Shares of railroad companies in different US cities fell from 28% to 84%. News of the economic crisis in the United States reached the shores of Great Britain only two weeks later.

A massive resettlement of poor people from villages to cities began, gradually littering the surrounding area. Epidemics of cholera and typhoid occur in New Orleans and New York. There was a similar situation in London, when in the summer of 1858 parliament was forced to adjourn because of the “Great Stench” - this is how this event went down in history.

As a result, the financial crisis swept across the world - in the United States, cotton consumption decreased by 27%, iron production fell by 20%, and the price index for agricultural goods decreased by 20%. In the UK, shipbuilding volumes fell by 26%. In Germany, cast iron consumption decreased by 25%. In France, iron smelting and cotton consumption decreased by 13%. In Russia, cast iron production fell by 17%, fabric production by 14%.

It is noteworthy that the economic crisis of 1857-1858 is called “Marx’s favorite crisis,” who, together with Engels, expected that it would turn from economic to social, against the backdrop of which the revolutionary political struggle would intensify in the world.

The most cinematic financial crisis (1929–1933)

The accumulated problems after the end of the First World War, the crisis of overproduction and excessive investment in industry led to overheating of the stock market. In one day, October 29, 1929, the loss of the American stock market amounted to 14 billion dollars; in just a week, the market sank by 30 billion; over the year, the market fell by 87%. The Great Depression began.

To protect the domestic market, in 1930 the United States imposed a 40% import duty, after which the crisis began to develop at an accelerated pace in Europe. Production in the US is reduced by 46%, in Germany by 41%, in France by 32%, in the UK by 24%. Industrialized cities are suffering the most, with construction almost completely stopping in some countries. The number of unemployed is almost 30 million people, of which almost half are in the United States.

Mass layoffs and hunger begin. In March 1930, in Detroit, Ford police and armed guards shot at a procession of starving factory workers who had been laid off. Five people are killed and more than 60 people are injured. According to statistics, up to 90% of American children at that time suffered from malnutrition.

When Roosevelt came to power in 1932, a cycle of reforms began, which was aimed at improving the economy and combating the economic crisis. Banks were closed for a week, and a deposit guarantee program was prepared. Then the banks were subject to inspection, and the most promising ones received government support. A social employment program was implemented - people were attracted to build roads and infrastructure facilities. Preferential lending to the agricultural segment has begun.

In 1933, the forced redemption of gold bars and coins at low prices and the ban on the circulation of gold in settlements began. The resulting gold was sent to the Fort Knox vault, where a gold reserve was formed.

The economy was able to fully recover only by 1939, after the intensification of military orders. The Great Depression was widely reflected in culture; many novels, songs, plays, and feature films were devoted to the events of those years; images of gangsters and robbers became especially popular.

Most politicized economic crisis (1973–1975)

This crisis began in October 1973, at the instigation of the OPEC countries, which imposed an embargo on oil supplies to countries that supported Israel in the war with Syria and Egypt. The crisis that followed this decision was politically motivated - there were no economic prerequisites for it. During the year, the price of oil quadrupled, as a result of which the economies of developed countries experienced a significant decline - in Germany by 22%, in Japan by 20%, in Italy by 14%, in France and the USA by 13%, in the UK - on 10%.

From 1973 to 1974, the stock market declined in the UK by 56%, in France and the USA by 33%, in Italy by 28%, in Japan by 17%, and in Germany by 10%. The number of bankruptcies increased in 1974 compared to 1973 in Great Britain by 47%, in Japan by 42%, in Germany by 40%, in France by 27%, in the USA by 6%.

This economic crisis increased the export of oil from the USSR to Europe, as a result of which the country firmly embarked on the rails of a resource economy, which led to an era of “stagnation”.

The embargo hit Japan very hard - oil covered 85% of its energy needs. The government decided to transition to a knowledge-intensive industry, the new strategy was successfully implemented and the country became a leader in technologically developed countries.

In France, they decided to develop nuclear energy, where its share in the energy system increased to 80%, they began to make maximum use of energy-saving technologies and for some time returned to the use of coal.

In some countries, more radical methods of saving were introduced. The Netherlands banned driving cars on Sundays and began to increase gas consumption in the energy sector. Flights across the Atlantic have been canceled in the UK. The United States also began to reduce oil consumption, people began to abandon cars with large engine capacities, the automotive industry began to change, and energy consumption in government institutions - schools, hospitals, and administrations - was significantly reduced. About 10 million people were put on short workweeks or furloughed. However, US oil companies, under the pretext of shortages, unreasonably increased gasoline prices, which became the subject of litigation.

This crisis also had long-term consequences - it became the first in a series of several crises that strengthened the socio-economic problems of the USSR, as a result of which the country ceased to exist.

The most epic economic crisis (2008–2009)

The 2008 financial crisis began with problems in the American mortgage lending market, when banks issued loans up to 130% of the cost of housing (in Russia on average 85% of the cost of housing). For calculations, the LIBOR rate was used, which increased significantly by the end of 2007, after which bankruptcies of mortgage borrowers began. The American Home Mortgage fund was the first to collapse (tenth position on the market, minus 45% of the share price, 90% of employees were fired). He pulled the world's largest banks Deutche Bank and JPMorgan with him. The lump grew, and in May 2008, the American investment bank Bear Stearns, which occupied second place in the mortgage bond market, collapsed (shares fell by 47%, the bank was sold at $2 per share, the day before the shares cost $30).

Then oil began to collapse - from $147 to less than $40 by the fall of 2008. In September 2008, the American bank Lehman Brothers (the fourth largest investment bank in the United States) declared bankruptcy, its debt amounted to $613 billion. The largest investment bank Merril Lynch ceased its independent activities, the losses of the two main mortgage agencies - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac amounted to $14 billion. Manufacturers in the automotive industry - General Motors, Chrysler - began to turn to the government for help. During the year, the US stock market lost an average of 40-45%, this is the maximum value since 1988.

The financial crisis of 2008 led to the collapse of the world. The Japanese market lost 42.12% - the worst performance in the history of trading. The Bank of England reduced the base rate to its lowest level since 1694 - to 2%. Iceland was facing bankruptcy - three of its largest banks collapsed. The country was forced to seek help from the IMF. Germany adopts a package of anti-crisis measures worth 500 billion euros to support banking system. France allocates 10.5 billion euros to the banking industry. Canada is cutting its refinancing rate to its lowest level since 1958. A protracted budget crisis began in Greece, which ultimately led the country to default in 2015. In Russia, the capitalization of companies decreased by 75%, gold and foreign exchange reserves by 25%. The total number of unemployed people in the world in 2009 was about 200 million people.

In 2009, the world economy showed negative growth for the first time since World War II, sagging by 0.7%, and world trade decreased by 10%. The world has still not recovered from the events of 2008; economists have already given a name to this condition - “The Great Recession”; according to their forecasts, the recovery from it may drag on indefinitely.

Table. A Brief History of the Global Financial Crises

In preparing the material, we used the monograph “Political Dimension of Global Financial Crises”, prepared by a group of authors from the Center for Problem Analysis and Public Management Design under the general editorship of S. Sulakshin, (Scientific Expert Publishing House, 2012), as well as data from other open sources.

To discuss the article, visit our groups on social networks

On February 18, 2009, a regular meeting of the Nikitsky Club of Scientists and Entrepreneurs on the topic “Non-economic factors of the global crisis” was held in Moscow. This article is an expanded version of the report made by the editor-in-chief of “Country Capital” at this meeting.

The financial crisis that began in 2008, developing into a full-fledged economic recession, surprises many with its suddenness and strength. But is this really so surprising?

How long can the crisis last? And why do we hear negative forecasts that the crisis will last a long time? Why can't the business community quickly understand the situation and regroup its forces?

All these questions have not yet found a simple and adequate explanation. Let's try to understand some cause-and-effect relationships.

1. Crisis as the lack of effective business space for capital. What are the specifics of the modern crisis? How does the current mortgage bubble, for example, differ from the Internet bubble of the turn of the century, which passed relatively painlessly for the world?

Economic development, as is known, goes from bubble to bubble. When one bubble bursts, a crisis arises and an active search begins for a new economic niche where another bubble could be inflated. In the early 2000s, when the Internet bubble burst, global capital was pumped into the housing construction sector. This was done quickly enough, and therefore the world did not fall into a protracted and deep crisis. In principle, global business understood perfectly well that this was not an area where it was possible to inflate a “full-fledged” bubble, but there was nothing to choose from. It was necessary to reorient global capital, which was done. The housing construction market was quite saturated and everyone understood it, but it should have been enough for several years. It turned out that it lasted about six to seven years, and this is, perhaps, even a little more than one might expect. What now?

Now the huge capital accumulated in the world has exhausted its possibilities for obtaining high profits: all known markets are saturated to the limit, their growth is limited, and the rate of return on capital in these markets becomes minimal and does not satisfy the capitalists. Capital holders are in a panic - where to “pump” the multi-billion dollar mass of money? Where will such investments justify themselves? Where will capital returns be high, stable and long-term?

Alas, there are no answers to these questions yet. And this is a very dangerous situation, because until intelligible answers are received, capital will literally go crazy in search of promising economic zones for further capitalization. And here a sacramental question arises: how long will the crisis last? The answer is simple: until new niches for effective investment of world capital are discovered. Today, no one yet sees these new niches, and therefore the accumulated capital cannot be “tied up” and they are increasingly “overheated”. This fact can be formulated as follows: the current crisis is a consequence of the lack of new sectors of the economy where global capital could rush.

2. War as a way to eliminate the economic crisis. What is the danger of the current situation?

The fact is that the prolonged prolongation of the crisis is not just hard for the population, but hard for capital, because it must “work” and not “stand idle.” Crowded and oversaturated markets deprive capital of high interest, and this is unacceptable. Even more terrible for capital is inflation. If prices rise, but capital lies motionless, this means that it simply depreciates. But after some time it can gradually “evaporate” altogether. But then what is the point of capital and its accumulation?

In short, stagnation of capital is unacceptable. But capital can still wait for some time, but not too long, because there is a limit to everything. And what should capital owners do if their patience is exhausted? But markets are still needed and they need to be “getted” from somewhere.

Considering that a crisis is always an excess supply of goods, services and capital, this situation needs to be changed. But if people no longer need anything, because they already have everything, then this state of affairs can be artificially “corrected.” This can be done with the help of such a magnificent tool for the destruction of material wealth as war. Its destructive impact will have a “beneficial” effect on the market, because the excess of goods will quickly be replaced by their shortage, a deficit will arise again, and capital will thereby again have the opportunity to begin activities to recreate these goods. The problem is that the markets in which capital will operate will be the same as before, and therefore no economic innovation will occur and the production-trade spiral will simply repeat itself again. In addition, human casualties and suffering in themselves indicate the undesirability of war.

A prolonged crisis is indeed very dangerous. For example, the Great Depression of 1929-1933, which lasted for 4 years, resulted in the emergence of Nazism. Moreover, its roots come, oddly enough, from the most democratic country in the world - Holland. Then it found its logical continuation in Italy and Germany. This is understandable: if you don’t have a job for a year or two, or maybe even all four, then the question arises: who needs such capitalism and why, and who needs economic freedom?

By the way, it was the Great Depression that was responsible for the formation of the communist regime on a global scale. For example, when Western engineers had no work and they literally had nothing to eat, at the same time Soviet Russia was conducting construction projects of the century and could lure good specialists to itself, if only because it could feed them. Subsequently, many Western intelligence officers went over to the side of the Soviet Union, not for money, but for ideological reasons, sincerely believing that the future belonged to this country. The result of such “support” for Nazism and communism was the Second World War with all the ensuing consequences. The stronghold of Nazism (Germany) and the stronghold of communism (USSR) collided with each other, but their very origin took its root in the Great Depression. Subsequently, after the war, Soviet Union was able to steal the secrets of the atomic bomb from the United States with the help of American physicists who sympathized with him. Consequently, the psychological shock from the crisis of the 1930s lasted about 20 years, thereby demonstrating the strength of the depressive effect.

Thus, the long-term impact of the Great Depression was very strong and truly terrible. The reason is still the same - the absence of new markets in conditions of unprecedented material abundance. The situation now strongly resembles the described dramatic events of the past. Summary: the longer the search for new markets takes, the longer the crisis will be and the greater the likelihood of war.

Here I would like to specifically dwell on a point that is often focused on when discussing the modern global financial system. This is a statement about the virtuality of money and finance, about the separation of symbols from the real economy. All this takes place, but at the same time we must keep in mind something else: capital is a real force that nothing can resist today. We can deny this power, we can believe that all this capital is not real and the entire economy is virtual, but when it comes to the consequences of the crisis and what happens in the absence of “reservoirs” capable of accommodating this supposedly fictitious capital, then he very quickly proves his power and effectiveness, sweeping away everything in his path. And war is just one of the tools for “tying up” capital. Of course, this is a “tool of last resort,” but still it is a real instrument, a channel for ensuring the efficiency of capital.

In addition to the danger from big capital, there is another danger coming from below. It is associated with the search by ordinary economic agents for earning opportunities. And in conditions of total unemployment and the absence of legal and meaningful ways to generate income, various criminal activities begin to intensify. This is the arms and drug trade, the actions of military groups on the territory of sovereign states. The latest and, perhaps, most striking manifestation of such trends was the intensification and high efficiency of the actions of Somali pirates. This kind of activity creates a favorable background for more global military operations.

3. Inflation and capital: the problem of deep connection. Oddly enough, almost nowhere is there any talk about the fatal connection between capital and inflation. Meanwhile, this connection is very simple and absolutely fundamental. What is it like and how can you imagine it on your fingers?

Let's start with some important facts. First, today's economic world operates in an environment of positive inflation. Almost no country in the world experiences deflation in normal times, when prices have a steady downward trend. We can talk about low inflation rates, close to zero, we can talk about hyperinflation, but inflation itself is almost always present. Secondly, some reduction in prices is observed during crisis periods. However, this pattern is often violated: deflation was more typical for classical crises of the past, but now it is observed only in developed countries of the world, and even then not too often. Third, high inflation has a devastating effect on the real economy.

These facts lead to the simplest question: why and who needs inflation and where does it come from?

Our answer to the question posed is somewhat subjective, but on the whole it corresponds to reality. Inflation is a driving motive for development in the sense that it forces world capital to constantly “turn around.” If you simply freeze your capital, hoard it, try to simply save it by storing it, for example, in a safe deposit box or at home, then with 10% annual inflation this will mean that in a year your capital will decrease by 10%. If you extend the period of passive capital storage, the losses will be even greater. In other words, during inflation, passively lying capital simply “evaporates,” and this, by definition, is unacceptable. Therefore, inflation spurs the owner of capital to take active steps to find channels for investing money, and the percentage of each monetary unit should not only be non-zero, but such as to also cover the rate of inflation. Only in this case will capital growth and self-expansion occur. In this case, time will work for the capital holder, and not against him, as is the case with passive saving of money.

Thus, in normal times, inflation does not allow the capitalist to relax and sit quietly on money. This is what it's all about the deep meaning of inflation is the depreciation of capital. In the event of a crisis, when it is not possible to find effective channels for applying capital, deflation is sometimes observed, i.e. falling prices. This is also clear from the previous diagram: if capital has nowhere to go and it must involuntarily lie passively for some time, then high inflation will simply destroy it, which is unacceptable. Accordingly, capital at this time benefits from deflation, when even the simple preservation of capital means its increase, because during deflation its purchasing power increases. Deflation can be said to be a mechanism by which capital can afford a temporary respite.

It must be said that recently the deflation mechanism has become increasingly weaker. In fact this means that Today in the world the requirements for the dynamism of capital have increased and even in times of crisis it must continue to move. This is one of the features of the modern economy.

Economists believe it's coming new era when deflation in developed countries will be accompanied by inflation in the developing world. It is believed that this phenomenon is extremely important and will be studied by future generations of economic researchers. However, what is important in this case is that there is now a transition to a heterogeneous world of inflation. But why does such a stratification of the world occur?

If we ignore the lofty theory, the explanation can again be given in terms of the interests of big capital. Centers The capitalist world (developed countries), where world capital is concentrated, must save themselves from inflation and it is beneficial for them to form a deflationary development regime. Periphery capitalism (underdeveloped countries), where other people's capital from other countries work, do not suffer from capital overflow and the deflation regime is not so much needed there. In fact, we are talking about the fact that the centers of capitalism act as a kind of harbors where world capital can “settle” for some time in the event of crisis shocks in the world economy. This is why a deflation regime is needed there. Even if capital in developing countries gets too bad, it will simply go to the center and sit out the difficult time there. Now it is difficult to say how sustainable this model of relations will be, but its configuration is quite reasonable from the point of view of preserving large capitals.

Now the question is why the world cannot function in conditions of deflation. In principle, one could assume that central banks able to pursue a fairly tight monetary policy, in which the supply of money would be less than demand, which would stimulate a decline in prices. However, in practice, such policies lead to the suppression of economic activity. Injections of money into the economy should be ahead of the process of creating a mass of goods, because they serve as a kind of incentive for production activity. But even a slight advance in cash injections into the economy leads to a temporary excess of money, which gives rise to inflation.

Moving on to figurative comparisons, we can say that money for the economy is like fuel for a car: first you fill it with fuel, and then you drive. Of course, you can fill up with fuel and not go anywhere, or stand still, warming up the car while idling, but you cannot demand that the car first drive, and then add gasoline to it as needed along the way. This logic manifests itself in the economy at all levels. For example, to start production you must first invest a certain amount of capital and then produce something; the reverse is not possible. Failure in the production process means that the money invested did not receive an appropriate commodity equivalent, which sooner or later will manifest itself in the form of inflation. Given that failure is the norm of capitalist enterprise, there are always “improper” injections of money into the economy.

4. The crisis in science as a threshold of the financial crisis. We clarified several points above. Firstly, capital cannot stop in its expansion, for which there must always be channels for its profitable investment. Secondly, if a problem arises in finding channels for investing capital, then over time the likelihood of war increases as a way to restart the development of traditional markets. Thirdly, at present, channels for profitable investment of capital are not visible.

Below we will dwell in more detail on the third aspect of the problem, namely: why are there no channels for global capital, who is to blame for this and what needs to be done?

When addressing this issue, we must proceed from the fact that an entrepreneur and investor, as holders of capital, can do a lot, but not everything. They can organize a new production, they can organize sales of new products, they can even build a new brand. If necessary, they can negotiate with officials, find the necessary personnel and purchase the most advanced equipment. But they can do all this only when it is already clear where to invest capital. But capital holders cannot determine these directions, because they do not know the technological capabilities modern world. But who then should show them the vector of development?

The answer suggests itself: those who deal with new technologies. This is the class of innovators that grows from the depths of science. It is science that opens up new horizons for development, it is scientists who offer technological and managerial innovations. They are the ones who must orient the business where to move when traditional paths are exhausted.

Well, why, one might ask, don’t they do this when the whole world expects it from them?

Here we come to a very important point, namely the statement that long before the financial crisis of 2008, science itself fell into a state of crisis, in which it still resides. What does this mean?

The fact is that investments in science are, although specific, still the same investments of capital that should have a certain return. Even if the state invests money in science, it takes this money from the population, collecting excess taxes from them, which are then spent on science. As a rule, the state acts as a strategic investor. This means three things. First, it takes on such high risks that private capital in most cases refuses to take. Secondly, the state is content with a low rate of return on invested capital; such returns can rarely satisfy private equity holders. Third, the state has a long planning horizon and can tolerate a very long payback period for investments; private capital does not agree to such terms. However, despite these specifics, the state is an investor and must return the money invested in science with a profit.

The return of funds occurs through the generation of new business proposals by science. The problem today is that science has become a loss-making project, i.e. it cannot offer the state and business anything truly interesting. Science produces many theoretical developments, but does not provide practical recommendations. In the language of economics, this means that the supply of a scientific product exceeds the demand for it. A scientific product of such quality becomes useless to anyone. This does not mean that there is nothing fruitful in modern science. This only means that there is little in it that is fruitful for the mass of capital that has accumulated in the world today. Consequently, just as an ordinary economic crisis is a chronic oversupply of goods and services, so a crisis in science is a chronic oversupply of scientific (theoretical) research. Just as in a normal market in a crisis it is impossible to sell the goods produced, so in the scientific market it is impossible to find application for the research being carried out.

Let us explain what we are actually talking about. Today there is a clear crisis in the energy sector, the whole world needs gas and oil, but science does not offer any constructive new methods for obtaining energy. Meanwhile, physicists are actively developing the theory of superstrings, which, for all its complexity and fundamental nature, does not promise any interesting practical proposals. Currently, huge financial and human resources are being thrown into the development of this exotic area of ​​physics, while the problems of practical energy have already for a long time remain undeservedly forgotten.

Against this background, some recent events look quite paradoxical. For example, due to Ukraine’s manipulations with the valves of Russian gas pipelines passing through its territory, Europe found itself in a very difficult situation for about a week. Moreover, the situation was so difficult that it was a question of the survival of its population in conditions harsh winter. In fact, Europe found itself dependent on Russian energy resources against the backdrop of gigantic research into unproductive areas of physics. Against this background of the almost complete absence of its own energy, the construction of the Large Collider looks rather strange, which, most likely, will not provide any fundamentally new knowledge, and most importantly, will not be able to warm Europe.

Let us emphasize that the crisis in science is not just ineffective investments. In the end, any losses can be written off, but that's not the point. They expected new proposals from science, but it did not give them - and this is a fundamental point. Roughly speaking, in science, the sights were “knocked down” and natural priorities in research were violated. The creation of a general string theory can wait, but energy can no longer wait. If today's financial crisis develops into an energy crisis, followed by a large-scale war, then string theory may not come to fruition at all.

Two decades ago, science offered the world personal computers, Internet and mobile communications. This was enough to inflate a powerful investment bubble, creating a completely new segment global economy and change the face of the planet. Today nothing similar is visible yet.

The above is only one side of the issue, but there is another. The fact is that science has become separated from business, and business from science; There is very weak communication between them, accompanied by mutual misunderstanding. Here we observe a typical failure in the operation of feedback links. Thus, diminished returns from science lead to a decrease in its funding with a proportional decrease in the income of researchers. As a result, many of them become, if not beggars, then not very wealthy. Representatives of the business world consider it simply dangerous to entrust such people with their huge capitals and take risks on their advice. In response, there is a wave of mistrust on the part of researchers who perceive businessmen as nouveau riche, embezzlers and intellectually bankrupt people. With such mutual rejection, dialogue becomes either very difficult or completely impossible. Accordingly, researchers show passivity and do not approach business with their proposals, and business withdraws into its own self-sufficiency and does not turn to science with questions. In such conditions, even if something interesting appears in the scientific field, it may simply not be noticed by the business community. (This is not about researchers running after entrepreneurs, but about their fruitful dialogue. An example of such constructive activity is N. Tesla, who always had sponsors for his fundamental research. T. A. Edison demonstrated something similar, but with less intensity of scientific fundamentality.)

Thus, the excess of theoretical developments in science as the primary stage of the crisis has already degenerated into the next stage - into mutual distrust of key groups of economic agents(researchers and investors). It is clear that in such conditions the search for new areas for effective investment is very difficult.

Now we can return to the question we formulated earlier: how long will the crisis last? The answer can be specified: until science indicates a new technological vector for the development of society. AND The longer science delays the birth of this notorious technological vector, the longer the crisis will last and the greater the likelihood of a global war.

5. Cycles of rational thinking. The disruption of the normal connection between business and science is determined by the fact that both of these areas are subject to strong mystification. For example, science insists on expanding fundamental research, fitting anything into this definition. Businesses often flaunt their social responsibility by including their own needs. However, in reality all this turns out to be much more complicated. Let us consider this issue in more detail in relation to science.

Let's touch on the differences between fundamental and applied science. Where is the line between them? Now these concepts are completely obscured. For example, funds mass media we are entertained by reports that definitive evidence of the existence of a black hole in our Galaxy has allegedly been obtained. And this is presented as a fundamental discovery. But is it such? This question may not even have an answer.

What do string theorists do? There is already a point of view according to which the result of their activity is the construction in the researcher’s head of a complex network of neural chains that reflect connections in the physical world. Thus, there is a usefulness of studies in the field of string theory, but it concerns only the researcher himself and does not affect the general public. Can such activity be interpreted as fundamental science? The answer again remains open.

At the same time, the problems of modern energy appear on the periphery of fundamental science. It is rather an applied science. But is it? For example, today there is still no clarity regarding the nature of ball lightning. Meanwhile, many experts argue that it is this phenomenon that promises new opportunities in the construction of alternative energy. How many physicists today are concerned with the study of ball lightning? No. And why? Because this direction lies away from the main road of fundamental science. But is it really that simple?

If we turn to the history of science, we will see that all the great scientists of the past paid tribute to ball lightning. Mikhail Lomonosov also studied it. Later, this object attracted the attention of Nikola Tesla, and even later, the “father of modern physical optics” Robert Wood paid attention to it. Were all these outstanding researchers working on a minor applied problem? Most likely, the case of ball lightning suggests that the division of research into fundamental and applied has exhausted itself and it is necessary to move on to a more holistic picture of science.

However, the main question has been left out of our consideration: why did theoretical thought prevail in science compared to applied thought?

In our opinion, the answer lies in the peculiarities of human thinking as such. The most essential property of consciousness is its rationality, but this property is not constant, given once and for all. It pulsates: sometimes rationality increases, sometimes decreases. Decreased rationality can take the form of irrationality and even irrationality. It seems, the dynamics of such pulsations of human consciousness are of a civilizational nature and is still poorly studied. At certain stages of the development of society, the rational principle predominates in the intellect of people. At this time, the pragmatic approach in science triumphs and research is constructive in nature with clearly expressed positive practical results. At some point, pragmatism leads thinking to a dead end; one must rise above current problems and move on to larger-scale theorizing. At this time, abstract knowledge increases, which can sometimes take the form of bizarre irrational theories that have no connection with the real world. However, here too, at some point, theoretical thought reaches a dead end, unable to answer the pressing questions of existence. And then we must return to the original pragmatism.

So we can say about the existence of certain irregular cycles in the level of rationality of people’s thinking. A special case of reflection of this pattern is the cycles of the level of pragmatism in scientific research. It seems that the world has now passed the maximum point in theorizing and needs more concrete and constructive knowledge. This circumstance, apparently, largely determines the current scientific and financial crises.

6. What to do? The considered features of the dynamics of the world economic system lead to the sacramental question: what to do and how to prevent possible local and global conflicts?

A detailed answer to this question would require a lot of space, so we will limit ourselves to only the main theses.

Firstly, it is necessary to rebuild science and orient it towards the search for real promising directions for the development of production technologies. To do this, it is necessary to change the structure of science itself and intensify its connection with business based on scientists’ attempts to understand business and speak to it in its language. It is possible that it will be necessary to freeze some theoretical areas of research for some time and transfer resources to more pressing problems.

Secondly, it is necessary to improve the mechanism of dialogue between business and science. It seems that business must have in its personnel arsenal people who can provide an effective interface with science. Business should open up to science, and not be confined to its already mastered issues.

Thirdly, all these transformations must be carried out in a short time. From what was said earlier, it is clear that the crisis should not last more than two years, because... otherwise, the likelihood of war will greatly increase and its prevention will be in question. Consequently, all reforms must be carried out literally in a year and a half. Speed ​​will decide, if not everything, then a lot.

7. Cycles or the end of history? All of the above is based on one simple hypothesis that the current crisis is just one in a long series of past and future crises. Consequently, after it, humanity will continue to move forward. However, this position is not the only one and exists alternative opinion, according to which this crisis will be the last, for we are entering a post-singular branch of history, where external evolution ends and something completely incomprehensible begins.

Here we find ourselves faced with a serious methodological dilemma: which version of history to accept?

In our opinion, no end to history is yet in sight, although it would be pointless to deny the uniqueness and uniqueness of the current moment. There is an important analogy to use here. For about a century and a half, the share of the public sector worldwide has followed a uniform growth trend. However, at a certain point - in different countries at different times - this trend changed to a cyclical pattern, when the share of the public sector began to periodically increase and decrease. In other words, a certain stage in the development of the public sector has ended and a new stage has begun, associated with the inclusion of a more flexible mechanism for competition between the public and private sectors of the economy. It seems to us that something similar will happen after the current crisis: perhaps frequent but minor crises will follow, initiating adjustments in economic development. Of course, if the world manages to avoid a global war with unpredictable consequences.

By the way, in the context of what has been said, it can already be argued that the liberal model of the economy, which has now undermined its authority, will retain its position. Simply, as it should happen in moments of crisis, the role of the public sector will increase at a certain point, and when the stabilization of the economy is ensured, large-scale privatization will begin again and the entire capitalist cycle will resume.

The world capitalist system still cannot get out of the most severe crisis in its history. Starting with the mortgage shocks in the United States, it spread throughout the world, hitting the economies of all countries without exception. The classics of Marxism noted the inevitability of crisis phenomena within the framework of the capitalist formation. They also said that the contradictions of capitalism would only grow like a snowball over time, aggravating the consequences of economic shocks over time.

The evidence for both the first and second statements is obvious today and lies on the surface. The reasons that gave rise to the crisis were formed in pre-crisis times and, characteristically, have not gone away today. All of them are inextricably linked with the fundamental structure of the world monetary and financial system, which emerged for the most part at the Bretton Woods conference in the United States in 1944.

Let us try to highlight these reasons that caused, if not collapse, then at least the most severe shocks to the world capitalist system.

Reason 1. Hypertrophied development of the financial sector

One of the deep problems of the modern world economy is that its monetary and financial sector is hypertrophied.

In modern conditions, the financial system is developing according to its own laws and has largely become detached from its original material base. The reason for this was the opportunity that emerged in connection with the increased international migration of capital to earn speculative income through the development of means of communication. According to experts, daily transactions in global currency, credit and financial markets 50 times exceed the value of transactions in world trade in goods. This phenomenon has introduced and continues to create deep imbalances in the world economy.

Thus, foreign liabilities (debts) of national banks from 1996 to 2011 increased more than 4 times - from 7.5 to 29.4 trillion. dollars (see Fig. 1).

Figure 1: Dynamics of changes in the volume of foreign liabilities of national banks (trillion US dollars)

Source: www.bis.org

The international bond market (debt securities) is developing at an even faster pace. During the period from 1996 to 2011, the volume of international bonds increased almost 12 times - from 2.5 to 29.7 trillion. dollars (see Fig. 2).

Figure 2: Dynamics of changes in the volume of the international bond market (trillion US dollars)

Source: www.bis.org

If we compare the volume of the global bond market with the volume of nominal world GDP, we can find that the value of this indicator increased from 8.2% in 1996 to 42.5% in 2011 (see Fig. 3).

Figure 3: Ratio of international bond market to global nominal GDP (%)

Calculated based on data from www.bis.org and www.worldbank.org

Reason 2: Derivatives Market Distortion

Derivatives are financial instruments - “preliminary contracts”, which are an agreement between two parties under which they assume an obligation or acquire the right to sell or buy a certain product within a specified period at a pre-agreed price. The purpose of purchasing a derivative is not to obtain the product itself, but to insure against price or currency risks in case of unpredictable price changes. However, in practice, trading in derivatives is greatly separated from trading in real goods and is carried out for the sake of obtaining speculative profit from changes in the price of the underlying product.

In December 2011, the nominal volume of derivatives traded on the world market increased to 673 trillion. dollars (Table 1).

Table 1. Nominal volume of derivatives traded on the world market (trillion US dollars)

Source: www.bis.org

The value of derivatives on the world market exceeded the volume of world GDP by at least ten times. In the US, the volume of derivatives exceeds GDP by more than 15 times. At the end of 2012, the US derivatives market was worth 310 trillion. dollars, while GDP in 2012 was $15.9 trillion, public debt was $16.8 trillion. During a crisis, derivatives create a “domino effect”: one instrument collapses, followed by others.

Reason 3. Systemically important financial institutions

The latest global financial crisis clearly demonstrated that another weakness capitalism lies in the activities of large financial institutions: “too big to fail” (TBTF). Such institutions are so large and interconnected that their bankruptcy becomes disastrous for the economy. In this regard, their support is necessary for the state in case of financial shocks.

Over the past decades, the banking sector has been characterized by a trend of constant growth, which clearly illustrates the pattern of capital’s desire for centralization described by Marx. Thus, in the USA 15 years ago, the assets of the 6 largest banks amounted to only 17% of GDP, and now - about 63%. The assets of the 10 largest banking institutions have increased from 24% of total assets in the early 1990s. and 44% in 2000 to 58% in 2010.

In practice, this situation leads to the fact that the bankruptcy of one of the market participants will subsequently have severe negative consequences for other participants due to the strong interconnectedness of all players.

During the current crisis, authorities in all countries have decided to rescue large banks in order to prevent further deterioration of the financial system. However, in reality, such measures allowed banks to behave completely irresponsibly and buy any assets. If they bring profit, the bank will increase its market share; if they lead to losses, the bank will be saved by the authorities.

Reason 4. Growing debt crisis

The danger of a growing debt crisis is another significant threat to the global monetary and financial system of capitalism. The high degree of threat is associated with the fact that debt problems have hit the world's largest economies - the EU, the USA, and Japan.

In the case of the European Union, the growing debt crisis threatens not only the integrity of this largest integration bloc, but also the fate of the euro, the second most important world currency.

The role of the EU in the global economy is very large. The European Union ranks 2nd in the world in terms of GDP ($15.63 trillion in 2012, at purchasing power parity), 1st in terms of export volumes ($2.17 trillion in 2012) 2nd place - in terms of import level (2.39 trillion US dollars in 2012) The total public debt of the EU is more than 16 trillion. US dollars (as of 2012).

The sovereign debt crisis in several European countries in 2010 hit the EU countries with weaker economies, the so-called PIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain), the hardest. Later, Italy faced such problems with a public debt of 120% of GDP in 2010, Belgium - 100% of GDP in 2010. To varying degrees, the crisis affected almost all EU countries.

The cause of the crisis in the EU was a combination of several factors, which include: globalization of the financial market; the relative ease of access to loans in 2002-2007, as a result of which a large number of them were issued with high risk; trade deficit of a number of countries (excess of imports over exports); expanding bubbles (trading at prices significantly higher than fair prices) in the real estate market; slowdown in economic growth beginning in 2008 and subsequent economic downturn; ineffective regulation of government spending and revenues; providing large-scale government assistance to banks.

A possible debt crisis in the United States is a phenomenon that will threaten the collapse of the entire world economy. Having a colossal public debt - 16.8 trillion. dollars, which exceeds the country’s GDP ($15.94 trillion in 2012), the United States avoids a technical default by increasing the level of its “ceiling”. Since the country's debts are denominated in dollars, the United States is able to pay off interest on its bonds by expanding the issuance of its currency.

Mass emission (the release of new money into circulation) will naturally lead to a fall in the purchasing power of the US dollar. If there were ever a technical default in the US, and it led to a sharp depreciation of the dollar, this would allow America to effectively write off a significant portion of its national debt. This will inevitably entail a colossal blow to the economies of all countries of the world that keep their foreign exchange reserves in dollars.

Another country experiencing serious debt problems is Japan. The national debt of this country has reached 12 trillion. dollars and more than twice its GDP. This is the worst indicator in the seven industrialized countries of the world. Considering the role of the country's economy in the world, the deepening and expansion of Japan's debt crisis will become a serious problem for the whole world. Japan's GDP in 2011 amounted to 4.7 trillion. dollars is the 5th largest economy in the world. The country ranks 5th in the world in terms of export and import volumes: $788 billion and $808.4 billion, respectively.

Reason 5. Instability of rates of leading world currencies

The instability of the exchange rates of key world currencies is another significant and intractable problem of the modern monetary and financial system.

In the figs below. 4 and 5 illustrate the dynamics of changes in the effective exchange rate index of the US dollar and euro over 10 years.

Figure 4: Dynamics of changes in the effective exchange rate of the US dollar (210=100)

Source: www.bis.org

Figure 5: Dynamics of changes in the effective euro exchange rate (210=100)

Source: www.bis.org

As you can see, the dynamics of changes in the effective exchange rate index of both the US dollar and the euro demonstrate a very high level of instability. Such significant changes in the exchange rates of the world's leading currencies undermine their function as a measure of value.

There is another reason for the instability of exchange rates. In the era of the WTO, when countries are deprived of the opportunity to fully use tariff and customs barriers, manipulation of the exchange rates of national currencies becomes an important weapon in the struggle for markets. The main goal of such manipulations is to support domestic producers and thus stimulate exports

To summarize, we note once again that the listed reasons for the crisis of world capitalism and its monetary and financial system largely arise from the insoluble contradictions of this socio-economic formation. Their elimination will mean a change in a number of fundamental principles, goals, patterns, incentives and values ​​of capitalism. Will those who are today the beneficiaries of this system agree to such changes? Hardly. Indeed, during the years of the crisis, the number of dollar millionaires in the world increased by 14%, and the total volume of their capital increased by 32%. During the same time, the army of unemployed people reached 300 million people (a third of them are young people). Capitalists will preserve the foundations of systems unshakable until the last moment, strive to concentrate capital, cherish the “sacred right of private property,” and impose consumer values ​​and individualism on the working people.

Other materials on the topic:

61 comments

Soglagolnik 09.08.2013 10:16

“Production relations, a set of material economic relations between people in the process of social production and the movement of the social product from production to consumption.
... Production-economic relations, or, as they are usually called, production relations, differ from production-technical relations in that they express the relations of people through their relations to the means of production, i.e. property relations.”
TSB

“Gold parity (from Latin paritas - equality, equivalence), 1) the weight content of pure gold in the national monetary unit fixed by the law of the country; 2) the ratio of two monetary units, calculated on the basis of their gold content, fixed by law.”
TSB

“Market, the sphere of commodity exchange. From the point of view of the territorial boundaries of the market and its scale, a distinction is made between the local Market (sphere of commodity exchange), national (internal) and global (external). The market (sphere of commodity exchange) is the dominant and determining form of communication between commodity producers based on the social division of labor.
... The market (the sphere of commodity exchange) is carried out on the basis of world prices, which differ from the price level in individual countries.”
TSB
.
A little long, but it seems exhaustive. The gold parity, on the basis of which world prices are formed, is directly related to market relations. At the same time, both of these concepts are equivalent and in no way carry an element of secondaryity in relation to each other. They arise simultaneously and simply cannot exist without each other. A market without an economic equivalent (gold parity) is no longer a market, but a simple exchange of goods.
.
As for those offensive attacks from the truly hysterical charisma of my opponent, in this regard I am completely calm. And you won’t take me with this. In the course of my production activities, I saw this... God forbid, as they say, for everyone. But hardening.
And all these nervous attacks only speak of uncertainty in own strength and about the weakness of their own positions. It is also an indicator of the general level of culture and degree of education of a given individual.

cat Leopold 09.08.2013 12:44

Of course, I expressed myself very poorly, expressing my conviction in the unacceptable form of a categorical statement, for which I apologize, but it was very painful. But I don’t think my statement about money is wrong. And I don’t see a refutation to him.
I want to continue. Money, as we have found out, from a Marxist point of view and which I think we all agree on, is the universal form of value. But then let’s look at the Marxist view of value itself - what is it and why did this concept arise in the first place?
According to Marx, COST is the cost of all the physical and mental forces of the producer of a particular product during the working time necessary for its production (hours, days, weeks, etc.), of course, socially necessary time. These costs are the price Most of the time, as Marx said, they crystallize in the object created by the worker, constituting its value, since it is not intended for one’s own consumption, but for exchange, i.e. since this object becomes a commodity. That is, any object produced by human labor that satisfies any need of other people for it becomes not only useful thing, but also a thing of a certain value, which can only be obtained by giving in return something of the same value, money, for example, in a certain amount.

cat Leopold 10.08.2013 07:00

Now specifically about the crisis of capitalism and its causes. The main reason for any EEF, including capitalism, is the IMPOSSIBILITY of further development of PRODUCTIVE FORCES given the given PRODUCTION RELATIONS. There can be a lot of manifestations of the upcoming and ongoing crisis in all spheres of public life, we all see this very well and feel it from our own experience.
This is a GENERAL understanding of the general socio-economic crisis. But what we currently need is an understanding of the specific mechanism of BLOCKING the development of Pr.forces by existing Pr. relationships. How exactly does this happen?

cat Leopold 10.08.2013 08:02

To do this, in my opinion, you need to clearly understand what Pr. forces, and what production relations are in general and specifically for a given period of social life.
I would like to note that these seemingly well-known and therefore banal things, their interpenetration and interaction, i.e. their dialectics, however, in reality, few people understand, and that is why, until now, the crisis mismatch of these basic factors of social life, namely the factors of people’s production activity, NOT overcome.

Vasily-1 12.08.2013 17:28

When we talk about the crises of world capitalism, we must first of all thoroughly understand economic processes both at the micro level (within capital countries) and at the macro level (between capital countries). We know that each individual capital of a production application functions on the principle of its own circulation around the point of application (payment for constant capital, production itself, sale of the good as a commodity). Here, the last operation is possible only if the total capital of a given specific country circulates. At the same time, the total capital of a specific country circulates around the axis of its application - public consumption through the market for the exchange of goods for money. Only real money on the return path of the movement of aggregate capital (like the return branch of a giant conveyor belt) is already in monetary form capable of feeding individual capitals as their goods leave production. In a word, the internal economy of each more or less developed capital country has a complex mechanism of internal economic relationships. It is these relationships that force the domestic economy to improve towards the socialization of production. According to the described principle, capitalism historically developed in individual countries and began to transfer its internal interdependencies to relations between capital countries. The current economic relations between capital countries are much more complex, say, at the stage of “large industry.” And this complexity is caused by the functioning of the most powerful transnational corporations (TNCs), the technological flows of which can repeatedly cross the borders of many “independent” countries and carry with them not only the means of production, but also their costs. The question is, how to determine the external economy of an individual capital country in these new conditions? No way, a global capital economy has already formed, which operates over individual countries. And if we take into account that where the head of the TNC (headquarters) is, there is its point of application financial activities, then we can fully comprehend a completely new order of dependence of capital countries. Since the USA has the main composition of TNCs, its internal economy becomes incomprehensible to the world - it supposedly lives on debt. No, it contains a new form of exploitation of the whole world. Therefore, the idea of ​​the crises of the global capital economy is the measure of the bourgeois world society; they are subjective. Using this method, assessing the state of the world economy and its crisis phases is not an objective factor. A different approach is required here - an approach from the position of the next socio-economic formation - communist. And here you need to learn materiel in a new way.

cat Leopold 13.08.2013 06:31

I am glad that I met the understanding that: “a different approach is required - an approach from the position of the next OEF, communist.” But I’m afraid I’ll bump into a commentator like Evgeniy again; one of his comments, in my opinion, was good, and after that he imagined that he was a Doc in everything and everywhere, but did not even know such an elementary thing that commodity production could be, and was at first simple before than to turn into a capitalist commodity. I have no desire to debate in the name of self-affirmation, only in the name of TRUTH.

Vasily-1 14.08.2013 17:05

Leopold!
If you speak out, you won’t lose anything from it, but it will give you a reason for further reflection. After all, the question is far from ordinary.

Rafik Kuliev 02.12.2014 10:01

The very fact of publishing such articles proves that this site belongs to the secret police.

gene 07.07.2016 00:45

Inflatable blows
—
We are bringing shine to the country -
It would be a shame to fall into the mud
An American is coming to us
Build bridges and connections.

We are all gray as mice
No progress, no ideas
And we want at least a small niche
In the kingdom of chosen people.

What does Tolstoy and Dostoevsky mean to us?
Mendeleev, Pasternak
There is a good reason to forget them -
There is no sausage at all.

In the rain of investments
Our true path will blossom.
Everyone wants to be abroad
And not to bend your back at home,

But we looked with horror -
What he brought with him
Inflatables were blowing
And it hurts us to tears

For dispelling myths
For the continuous lies in the press.
Utility tariffs
The body trembles

Dedicated server 23.04.2017 17:04

Many fortunes have disappeared, many have been halved, many formerly prosperous families are now in dire need, many workers are unemployed.” Among the causes and factors leading to economic crises, psychological factors occupy a special place, since the behavior of economic agents can be a “trigger” for a crisis.

spirit 16.05.2018 15:27

THUS SAITH THE LORD.., IN TRUTH, THE LAWMAKER AND THE JUDGE, OF THE LIVING AND THE DEAD..!

“Let there be one law for both the natural inhabitant and the alien,

settled between you. You should have one court, as for

the stranger, so it is for the native, for I am the Lord your God..!

(Sacred.., - CANON, - Lev.24:22.., Ex.12:49).

BUT IF YOU.., RESISTED AGAINST GOD AND DECLARED YOURSELF,

“CIVILIZED”, “SECLARIC - (SATANIC, - NOT

RECOGNIZING - GOD'S LAWS AND COURTS ...), THE STATE ",

(for Satan... is a liar and a murderer - John 8:44..., first

Questioned the truth of the word

God...,"Did God really say..."
Genesis.3, 1…)

THIS... DOES NOT MEAN AT ALL THAT GOD’S LAWS AND COURTS, -

LOST POWER OVER THE WORLD..!

THIS MEANS THAT, (YOU, - HAVE ACQUIRED A CURSE.., - DEUTERONOMY..,

28, 15 - 68.., AND...), YOU HAVE, - AHEAD.., - BIG

PROBLEMS..!

THUS SAITH THE LORD..!

AND BECAUSE.., THUS SAITH THE LORD..!

If you, (contrary to the Lord...), to please man, (seeking

yours...), - you will tell the stranger..., “live..., - in my land, -

build a temple to your god and worship him, and live in peace with

And the stranger... will do according to your word, (will build...

temple to his god, for his own glory...), and he will worship God

its own and will be fruitful and multiply and multiply and

will strengthen itself and tell you.., “this is my land..,” given to me

my God, - here is my shrine - the graves of my fathers" ..!

And the stranger will... oppress you and persecute you for...

that - you did not listen to the Lord your God - (in - the truth..., - the LAWGIVER and the JUDGE, - the living and the dead...),
and he allowed the stranger to build a temple to his god (in the land that the Lord your God gave you...)!

THUS SAITH THE LORD..!

Let it not be among you..., - as among the infidels and pagans - (as in

enslaved, - by the Jewish fascists of Russia...), godless, -

lynchings, where hypocrisy and all kinds of lawlessness reign, - and

satanic law.., “IF THERE WAS A MAN, THE ARTICLE WOULD BE FOUND.”..!

But..., - “Choose for yourselves - wise, understanding and

tested.., says the Lord..!!

And this is the commandment to your judges... says the Lord:

listen to your brothers and judge fairly, as you would a brother

brother, and his stranger;

do not distinguish between the persons at the judgment, both small and great

listen: do not be afraid of the face of man, for judgment is a matter

(Deut. 1:13-18).

THUS SAITH THE LORD... - GOD - (THE HATER OF LAWELESS...)!

“BEFORE SUCH COURT..., - AS BEFORE GOD, - ALL ARE EQUAL, KING

AND THE SERVANT IS RICH AND POOR"...!

“Woe to those who make unjust laws and write

cruel decisions

to exclude the poor from justice and steal rights from

weak among the people, to make widows their prey

and rob the orphans.

And what will you do on the day of visitation when destruction comes

from afar?

Who will you turn to for help? And where will you leave your wealth?

What will you do.., - when exhausted, - strength

yours, to whom will you call - when you are in the power of the executioner..!?

Woe to him..., - who plants, -

lynching..!

He himself... will become a victim of lynching...!

INTO THE TRUTH IS THE LEGISLATIVE AND THE JUDGE OF THE LIVING AND THE DEAD..!